🔥 How to Buy Cape Coral Properties 10-15% Below Ask

STR Scout Members,

The Big Picture: As we track the "Sunbelt Correction" down the Gulf Coast, the narrative is shifting. We have moved from the "Emerald Coast" into the high-stakes waters of Southwest Florida.

While the panhandle grapples with a "Saturation Divide," Cape Coral and the surrounding SWFL markets are facing a battle of "Actuarial Carry." The market signals are transitioning from inventory duration to the raw cost of ownership.

The Problem: Southwest Florida is no longer a "speculative buy" market. Cape Coral has transitioned into a definitive Buyer's Market as of Q1 2026, with over 7 months of inventory pushing the median Days on Market to 80+ days.

The real "wall" isn't just the 2026 interest rates; it is the "Shadow Mortgage" of insurance premiums, which are effectively adding $60k–$150k to the true purchase price impact. For the first time, nearly 50% of listings have sat for over 90 days as "2021-era" pricing hits the reality of Florida's new insurance math.

Our Role: My job is to give you the negotiation edge everyone else is missing. With a median sale-to-list ratio at 95.7%, the math says you should be buying 4-5% below ask. But when you know which properties carry actuarial risk—aging roofs, flood zone exposure, unverified wind mitigation—you can push that discount to 10-15% below current list price.

This issue scans for motivated sellers sitting on properties with forensic breaks the average buyer can't identify. I'm hunting for the 200+ DOM listings where insurance fear, roof age, and tax resets are stacking up to create negotiating leverage you can actually use.

In this issue: Three Cape Coral properties with full forensic underwriting—actuarial risk, tax modeling, verified comps, and the exact due-diligence questions that expose the break. Plus ten additional deals with motivation signals showing where seller distress is highest right now.

Happy scouting,

Andy T.

Founder, STR Scout

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation intel we sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide

• Buy-Side Reality: Cape Coral has transitioned into a definitive Buyer’s Market as of Q1 2026. With over 7 months of inventory and a sale-to-list ratio hovering near 95%, buyers hold the leverage. However, the "Buy-Side" is complicated by surging carrying costs; insurance premiums now function as a "shadow mortgage," effectively adding $60k–$150k to the true purchase price in terms of debt-to-income impact.

• Supply vs. Saturation: Inventory is bifurcated. While total active listings have stabilized near 3,300+ units, the market is oversaturated with "stale" inventory—nearly 50% of listings have sat for over 90 days. Fresh, high-quality "Fee Simple" assets (built 2020+) are absorbing faster, while older, non-waterfront homes are seeing aggressive price floor testing.

• The Valuation Math: To clear current interest rates and the "Florida Insurance Tax," investors are demanding deep discounts. The math no longer supports "buy and hold" at list price; successful acquisitions in 2026 require a 10-15% discount from 2024 peak valuations to achieve a neutral cash-flow position before factoring in STR upside.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory

Market Pulse: STR Performance

Asset Analysis: Cape Coral (Market-Wide)

• The Big Picture: The market is undergoing a post-pandemic correction. The "Gold Rush" is over, replaced by a "Flight to Quality." Investors are pivoting from speculative appreciation to yield-heavy waterfront assets with Gulf access, which remain the only segment with resilient pricing.

• Yield Hook: High-performing 5-bedroom assets are the "Yield Moat," grossing $73k+ compared to the $40k median. Properties with unique amenities (Saunas, Hot Tubs, Waterfront) command a $15k–$47k revenue delta over standard 3/2 suburban infill.

• Operational Red Flags: Skyrocketing homeowners insurance (HOI) and flood insurance are the primary "yield killers." Any asset built pre-2020 without updated hurricane mitigation or elevation certificates should be viewed as a high-risk liability regardless of list price.

Sources: Data synthesized via VMLS, Realtor/MLS, and AirROI.

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Forensic Property Intel

$1,850,000 — 842 Miramar Ct, Cape Coral, FL 33904

6 BR | 4.5 BA | 4,869 SqFt | $380/SqFt | Single-Family Residence

Forensic Market Data: Cape Coral / 33904

February 2026. The market is currently in a buyer's phase characterized by an 8.1-month supply of inventory and significant price normalization. Average homes in the Yacht Club submarket are clearing at 95–96% of list price with median Days on Market (DOM) extending to 64 days.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: Listing anchors on "Proven Airbnb Income" ($68k in 2025) and "3-minute boat ride" to the river. The narrative shifts from luxury residence to a yield-producing asset to justify the near-$2M price point.

• Price Adjustments: Total listing age exceeds 268 days. The property has undergone two major reductions: from $2,050,000 (May 2025) to $1,950,000 (Aug 2025), and finally to $1,850,000 (Oct 2025).

• Appreciation History: Purchased in Aug 2021 for $1,450,000. The current ask represents a 27.5% premium over the 2021 peak-market entry price, despite broader regional corrections of nearly 20% from peak levels in Cape Coral.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

• Actuarial Risk: The Tile Roof (2010) is 16 years old, exceeding the 15-year threshold often used by Florida carriers for non-renewals or significant surcharges.

• Legislative Audit: Single-family home. Wind mitigation features include Impact Glass and Hurricane Windows (per listing), though certification dates are not provided.

• Marine Infrastructure: 14,000 lb boat lift and dock canopy updated in 2020.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 33904 average currently trends at 94.2%.

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 809 Miramar Ct: Sold $2,072,000 (Nov 2025) | $658/SqFt (Smaller lot/sqft).

  • 825 Miramar Ct: Sold $1,825,000 (Oct 2025) | $606/SqFt.

• Direct Competition:

  • 836 Miramar Ct: Active at $1,895,000 ($623/SqFt) with 3,040 SqFt.

  • 1110 Lenox Ct: Active at $2,849,900 ($631/SqFt) — Higher-end finish benchmark.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "Can you provide the 2025 Schedule E or 1099 to verify the $68,000 gross revenue claim, and does this include or exclude cleaning fees/taxes?"

2. "What is the remaining useful life of the 2010 tile roof according to a recent 4-point inspection, and has it been cleared for a standard HO3 policy?"

3. "Are there any remaining city utility assessments (water/sewer/irrigation) that have not been fully paid off at closing?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The property sits at a $380/SqFt entry point, which is significantly below the neighborhood median of $600+/SqFt, reflecting its massive footprint (4,869 SqFt) and aging structural components (2010 roof). While the tax reset estimate suggests a potential decrease from the current non-homestead bill, the high DOM (268) indicates the market has rejected the initial $2M+ valuation. Forensic risk is concentrated in the 16-year-old roof's impact on insurance eligibility and the gap between the $68k revenue claim and the ~$13,000/mo estimated debt service.

$530,000 — 1511 SW 4th Pl, Cape Coral, FL 33991

3 BR | 2 BA | 1,653 SqFt | $321/SqFt | Single-Family Residence

Forensic Market Data: Hancock / 33991

February 2026. The 33991 ZIP code is a heavy buyer's market. Inventory has surged 116% year-over-year, leading to a 9.1% decline in median list prices. Average homes are sitting for 94–111 days and selling for approximately 4-6% below list price.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: High-yield pitch ("12% CAP rate") targeting investors. The listing highlights a "private in-law suite" and "Lake Kennedy chain" access to justify a $321/PPSF in a ZIP where the median is $247/PPSF.

• Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 143 days. Reduced from $555,000 to $530,000 on Oct 17, 2025.

• Appreciation History: Purchased in July 2024 for $499,500. The current ask is only a 6% premium over the 2024 purchase price, suggesting the current owner is seeking an exit near their cost basis plus improvements.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

• Actuarial Risk: The Shingle Roof (2014) is 12 years old. While functional, it is approaching the 15-year "hard look" period for Florida insurers where premiums escalate or replacement is mandated for coverage.

• Legislative Audit: Property is located in Flood Zone X (No Flood Insurance Required)—a significant operational advantage in Cape Coral.

• Mechanicals: A/C replaced in 2024; Water Heater in 2020; PVC plumbing verified.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 33991 currently averages 95.7%.

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 3318 SW 2nd St: Sold $530,000 (Feb 2026) | $311/SqFt (1,703 SqFt).

  • 309 SW 15th Ter: Sold $535,000 (Nov 2025) | $298/SqFt (1,791 SqFt).

• Direct Competition:

  • 1402 SW 4th Ave: Active at $359,500 ($255/SqFt) — Non-waterfront benchmark.

  • 1222 SW 4th Ct: Active at $649,000 ($292/SqFt) — Newer construction benchmark.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "Can you provide the STR revenue ledger for the 'in-law suite' vs. the main house to verify the 12% CAP rate claim, given that 33991 median rents are currently $2,250/mo?"

2. "Is the 'private in-law suite' a permitted conversion, and does the 1,653 SqFt reflect the living area before or after the garage/suite conversion?"

3. "Has a Wind Mitigation inspection been performed since the 2024 A/C install to maximize insurance credits?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

This property carries a 30% premium per square foot over the 33991 median ($321 vs $247), purely on its "turnkey business" status and canal access. While the "No Flood Zone" status is a major risk mitigator, the 12-year-old roof is a looming capital expenditure within the next 36 months. The forensic risk lies in the "12% CAP" claim; achieving $7k–$10k/month in a market where regional STR supply has increased by 116% requires outlier performance.

$350,000 — 510 SW 51st Ter, Cape Coral, FL 33914

3 BR | 2 BA | 1,408 SqFt | $249/SqFt | Single-Family Residence

Forensic Market Data: Pelican / 33914

February 2026. The Pelican neighborhood is currently a buyer's market, though activity is re-engaging as pricing aligns with a 19.3% correction from the 2022 peak. Median sale prices in the 33914 ZIP sit at $475,000, with inventory rising 116% year-over-year. Homes are averaging 78–104 Days on Market (DOM) and clearing at 95% of list price.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: Listing anchors on "Successful Airbnb" and "Transferable Flood Insurance." The inclusion of a new 2023 pool and "Remodeled" status are used to support the current valuation in an older 1972 structure.

• Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 118 days. The property was reduced from $375,000 to $350,000 on Jan 5, 2026.

• Appreciation History: Purchased in May 2023 for $330,000. The current ask is only a 6% premium over the 2023 entry price, despite the 2023 addition of a private pool, suggesting the owner is pricing for a rapid exit in a tightening supply environment.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

• Actuarial Risk: The Shingle Roof (2018) is 8 years old, well within the 15-year insurance eligibility window.

• Mechanicals: New A/C (Dec 2022), New Electric (2021), and New Heater (2021) mitigate major near-term capital expenditure risks.

• Legislative Audit: New 2026 Cape Coral regulations mandate a $350 annual Short-Term Rental (STR) registration fee and a DBPR vacation rental license.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: Pelican average currently trends at 95.6%.

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 921 SW 51st Ter: Sold $400,000 (Nov 2025) | $198/SqFt (Larger 2,016 SqFt).

  • 5245 SW 19th Pl: Sold $380,000 (Feb 2026) | $195/SqFt.

• Direct Competition:

  • 5131 SW 18th Ave: Active at $315,000 ($190/SqFt) — Non-pool benchmark.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "Can you provide the STR revenue reports for 2024 and 2025 to verify the 'successful' claim against the $2,487/mo estimated carry?"

2. "Since the pool was added in 2023, has a new Elevation Certificate been issued to confirm the 'transferable' flood insurance rate remains accurate?"

3. "Are the solar panels mentioned in recent listing data fully paid off, or is there a UCC-1 lien that must be satisfied at closing?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The property is priced at $249/SqFt, which is a premium over the immediate neighborhood sold median of ~$195/SqFt, justified primarily by the 2023 pool addition and 1972-to-modern mechanical overhaul. While the tax reset provides a slight monthly tailwind, forensic risk is concentrated in the STR saturation of the Pelican area, where rental prices have declined 13.6% YoY. The valuation is aggressive for the square footage but aligned with "turnkey" investor expectations for the 33914 ZIP.