STR Scout Members,
The Big Picture: As we track the "Sunbelt Correction" down the Gulf Coast, the narrative is shifting. We have moved from the "Emerald Coast" into the high-stakes waters of Southwest Florida.
While the panhandle grapples with a "Saturation Divide," Cape Coral and the surrounding SWFL markets are facing a battle of "Actuarial Carry." The market signals are transitioning from inventory duration to the raw cost of ownership.
The Problem: Southwest Florida is no longer a "speculative buy" market. Cape Coral has transitioned into a definitive Buyer's Market as of Q1 2026, with over 7 months of inventory pushing the median Days on Market to 80+ days.
The real "wall" isn't just the 2026 interest rates; it is the "Shadow Mortgage" of insurance premiums, which are effectively adding $60k–$150k to the true purchase price impact. For the first time, nearly 50% of listings have sat for over 90 days as "2021-era" pricing hits the reality of Florida's new insurance math.
Our Role: My job is to give you the negotiation edge everyone else is missing. With a median sale-to-list ratio at 95.7%, the math says you should be buying 4-5% below ask. But when you know which properties carry actuarial risk—aging roofs, flood zone exposure, unverified wind mitigation—you can push that discount to 10-15% below current list price.
This issue scans for motivated sellers sitting on properties with forensic breaks the average buyer can't identify. I'm hunting for the 200+ DOM listings where insurance fear, roof age, and tax resets are stacking up to create negotiating leverage you can actually use.
In this issue: Three Cape Coral properties with full forensic underwriting—actuarial risk, tax modeling, verified comps, and the exact due-diligence questions that expose the break. Plus ten additional deals with motivation signals showing where seller distress is highest right now.
Happy scouting,
Andy T.
Founder, STR Scout
Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation intel we sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.
Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide
Buy-Side Reality: Cape Coral has transitioned into a definitive Buyer’s Market as of Q1 2026. With over 7 months of inventory and a sale-to-list ratio hovering near 95%, buyers hold the leverage. However, the "Buy-Side" is complicated by surging carrying costs; insurance premiums now function as a "shadow mortgage," effectively adding $60k–$150k to the true purchase price in terms of debt-to-income impact.
Supply vs. Saturation: Inventory is bifurcated. While total active listings have stabilized near 3,300+ units, the market is oversaturated with "stale" inventory—nearly 50% of listings have sat for over 90 days. Fresh, high-quality "Fee Simple" assets (built 2020+) are absorbing faster, while older, non-waterfront homes are seeing aggressive price floor testing.
The Valuation Math: To clear current interest rates and the "Florida Insurance Tax," investors are demanding deep discounts. The math no longer supports "buy and hold" at list price; successful acquisitions in 2026 require a 10-15% discount from 2024 peak valuations to achieve a neutral cash-flow position before factoring in STR upside.
Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory
Metric | Current Value (Q1 2026) | Trend vs. 2025 |
Active Homes (Fee Simple) | 3,355 | +9.7% |
Median List Price | $409,633 | -4.2% |
Sale-to-List Ratio | 95.7% | Softening |
Median Days on Market | 80 Days | +18.3% |
Market Pulse: STR Performance
Metric | Current Value (Q1 2026) | Signal |
Active STR Competition | 3,395 Units | High Saturation |
Median Occupancy | 45% | Seasonal Peak (March/April) |
Median STR Revenue | $40,987 | Annualized |
Top 10% STR Revenue | $73,141+ | Amenity Dependent |
Asset Analysis: Cape Coral (Market-Wide)
The Big Picture: The market is undergoing a post-pandemic correction. The "Gold Rush" is over, replaced by a "Flight to Quality." Investors are pivoting from speculative appreciation to yield-heavy waterfront assets with Gulf access, which remain the only segment with resilient pricing.
Yield Hook: High-performing 5-bedroom assets are the "Yield Moat," grossing $73k+ compared to the $40k median. Properties with unique amenities (Saunas, Hot Tubs, Waterfront) command a $15k–$47k revenue delta over standard 3/2 suburban infill.
Operational Red Flags: Skyrocketing homeowners insurance (HOI) and flood insurance are the primary "yield killers." Any asset built pre-2020 without updated hurricane mitigation or elevation certificates should be viewed as a high-risk liability regardless of list price.
Sources: Data synthesized via VMLS, Realtor/MLS, and AirROI.
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We scan top STR markets for potential properties with motivational signals—Days on Market, actuarial risk, tax resets—and share forensic intel on STR properties with potential negotiation leverage.
This week: 3 full breakdowns + 10 motivated seller signals in Cape Coral.
STR Scout Plus is launching soon.
Forensic Property Intel
$1,850,000 — 842 Miramar Ct, Cape Coral, FL 33904
6 BR | 4.5 BA | 4,869 SqFt | $380/SqFt | Single-Family Residence
Forensic Market Data: Cape Coral / 33904
February 2026. The market is currently in a buyer's phase characterized by an 8.1-month supply of inventory and significant price normalization. Average homes in the Yacht Club submarket are clearing at 95–96% of list price with median Days on Market (DOM) extending to 64 days.
Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses
Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.
Expense Category | Monthly Cost | Annual Total | Data Source |
HOA/Condo Fees | $0 | $0 | MLS Listing |
Current Taxes (2024) | $2,578 | $30,939 | Public Record |
Est. Post-Sale Taxes | $1,911 | $22,940 | 2026 Reassessment Est. |
Est. Fixed Carry | $1,911 | $22,940 | Projected Monthly Burn |
Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. The estimate above models a 1.24% effective tax rate (Cape Coral median) applied to the $1.85M purchase price, assuming the removal of the previous owner's "Save Our Homes" cap.
Price Exposure & Valuation History
Motivational Scan: Listing anchors on "Proven Airbnb Income" ($68k in 2025) and "3-minute boat ride" to the river. The narrative shifts from luxury residence to a yield-producing asset to justify the near-$2M price point.
Price Adjustments: Total listing age exceeds 268 days. The property has undergone two major reductions: from $2,050,000 (May 2025) to $1,950,000 (Aug 2025), and finally to $1,850,000 (Oct 2025).
Appreciation History: Purchased in Aug 2021 for $1,450,000. The current ask represents a 27.5% premium over the 2021 peak-market entry price, despite broader regional corrections of nearly 20% from peak levels in Cape Coral.
Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")
Actuarial Risk: The Tile Roof (2010) is 16 years old, exceeding the 15-year threshold often used by Florida carriers for non-renewals or significant surcharges.
Legislative Audit: Single-family home. Wind mitigation features include Impact Glass and Hurricane Windows (per listing), though certification dates are not provided.
Marine Infrastructure: 14,000 lb boat lift and dock canopy updated in 2020.
Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks
Sale-to-List Ratio: 33904 average currently trends at 94.2%.
Verified Sold Comps:
809 Miramar Ct: Sold $2,072,000 (Nov 2025) | $658/SqFt (Smaller lot/sqft).
825 Miramar Ct: Sold $1,825,000 (Oct 2025) | $606/SqFt.
Direct Competition:
836 Miramar Ct: Active at $1,895,000 ($623/SqFt) with 3,040 SqFt.
1110 Lenox Ct: Active at $2,849,900 ($631/SqFt) — Higher-end finish benchmark.
Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions
"Can you provide the 2025 Schedule E or 1099 to verify the $68,000 gross revenue claim, and does this include or exclude cleaning fees/taxes?"
"What is the remaining useful life of the 2010 tile roof according to a recent 4-point inspection, and has it been cleared for a standard HO3 policy?"
"Are there any remaining city utility assessments (water/sewer/irrigation) that have not been fully paid off at closing?"
Underwriting Logic Summary
The property sits at a $380/SqFt entry point, which is significantly below the neighborhood median of $600+/SqFt, reflecting its massive footprint (4,869 SqFt) and aging structural components (2010 roof). While the tax reset estimate suggests a potential decrease from the current non-homestead bill, the high DOM (268) indicates the market has rejected the initial $2M+ valuation. Forensic risk is concentrated in the 16-year-old roof's impact on insurance eligibility and the gap between the $68k revenue claim and the ~$13,000/mo estimated debt service.
$530,000 — 1511 SW 4th Pl, Cape Coral, FL 33991
3 BR | 2 BA | 1,653 SqFt | $321/SqFt | Single-Family Residence
Forensic Market Data: Hancock / 33991
February 2026. The 33991 ZIP code is a heavy buyer's market. Inventory has surged 116% year-over-year, leading to a 9.1% decline in median list prices. Average homes are sitting for 94–111 days and selling for approximately 4-6% below list price.
Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses
Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.
Expense Category | Monthly Cost | Annual Total | Data Source |
HOA/Condo Fees | $0 | $0 | MLS Listing |
Current Taxes (2025) | $575 | $6,896 | 2025 Tax Bill |
Est. Post-Sale Taxes | $547 | $6,572 | 2026 Reassessment Est. |
Est. Fixed Carry | $547 | $6,572 | Projected Monthly Burn |
Note: The 2025 tax bill reflects a 122% jump from 2024, likely due to the July 2024 sale reset. Our 2026 estimate uses the Cape Coral median effective rate (1.24%) against the current $530k ask.
Price Exposure & Valuation History
Motivational Scan: High-yield pitch ("12% CAP rate") targeting investors. The listing highlights a "private in-law suite" and "Lake Kennedy chain" access to justify a $321/PPSF in a ZIP where the median is $247/PPSF.
Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 143 days. Reduced from $555,000 to $530,000 on Oct 17, 2025.
Appreciation History: Purchased in July 2024 for $499,500. The current ask is only a 6% premium over the 2024 purchase price, suggesting the current owner is seeking an exit near their cost basis plus improvements.
Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")
Actuarial Risk: The Shingle Roof (2014) is 12 years old. While functional, it is approaching the 15-year "hard look" period for Florida insurers where premiums escalate or replacement is mandated for coverage.
Legislative Audit: Property is located in Flood Zone X (No Flood Insurance Required)—a significant operational advantage in Cape Coral.
Mechanicals: A/C replaced in 2024; Water Heater in 2020; PVC plumbing verified.
Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks
Sale-to-List Ratio: 33991 currently averages 95.7%.
Verified Sold Comps:
3318 SW 2nd St: Sold $530,000 (Feb 2026) | $311/SqFt (1,703 SqFt).
309 SW 15th Ter: Sold $535,000 (Nov 2025) | $298/SqFt (1,791 SqFt).
Direct Competition:
1402 SW 4th Ave: Active at $359,500 ($255/SqFt) — Non-waterfront benchmark.
1222 SW 4th Ct: Active at $649,000 ($292/SqFt) — Newer construction benchmark.
Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions
"Can you provide the STR revenue ledger for the 'in-law suite' vs. the main house to verify the 12% CAP rate claim, given that 33991 median rents are currently $2,250/mo?"
"Is the 'private in-law suite' a permitted conversion, and does the 1,653 SqFt reflect the living area before or after the garage/suite conversion?"
"Has a Wind Mitigation inspection been performed since the 2024 A/C install to maximize insurance credits?"
Underwriting Logic Summary
This property carries a 30% premium per square foot over the 33991 median ($321 vs $247), purely on its "turnkey business" status and canal access. While the "No Flood Zone" status is a major risk mitigator, the 12-year-old roof is a looming capital expenditure within the next 36 months. The forensic risk lies in the "12% CAP" claim; achieving $7k–$10k/month in a market where regional STR supply has increased by 116% requires outlier performance.
$350,000 — 510 SW 51st Ter, Cape Coral, FL 33914
3 BR | 2 BA | 1,408 SqFt | $249/SqFt | Single-Family Residence
Forensic Market Data: Pelican / 33914
February 2026. The Pelican neighborhood is currently a buyer's market, though activity is re-engaging as pricing aligns with a 19.3% correction from the 2022 peak. Median sale prices in the 33914 ZIP sit at $475,000, with inventory rising 116% year-over-year. Homes are averaging 78–104 Days on Market (DOM) and clearing at 95% of list price.
Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses
Isolates property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.
Expense Category | Monthly Cost | Annual Total | Data Source |
HOA/Condo Fees | $0 | $0 | MLS Listing |
Current Taxes (2024) | $510 | $6,122 | 2024 Tax Bill |
Est. Post-Sale Taxes | $362 | $4,340 | 2026 Reassessment Est. |
Est. Fixed Carry | $362 | $4,340 | Projected Monthly Burn |
Note: The 2024 tax bill reflects a 153% spike, likely following the May 2023 sale reset. Under Florida Law, property assessments reset on Jan 1st. Our 2026 estimate models a 1.24% effective tax rate (Cape Coral median) against the $350k purchase price.
Price Exposure & Valuation History
Motivational Scan: Listing anchors on "Successful Airbnb" and "Transferable Flood Insurance." The inclusion of a new 2023 pool and "Remodeled" status are used to support the current valuation in an older 1972 structure.
Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 118 days. The property was reduced from $375,000 to $350,000 on Jan 5, 2026.
Appreciation History: Purchased in May 2023 for $330,000. The current ask is only a 6% premium over the 2023 entry price, despite the 2023 addition of a private pool, suggesting the owner is pricing for a rapid exit in a tightening supply environment.
Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")
Actuarial Risk: The Shingle Roof (2018) is 8 years old, well within the 15-year insurance eligibility window.
Mechanicals: New A/C (Dec 2022), New Electric (2021), and New Heater (2021) mitigate major near-term capital expenditure risks.
Legislative Audit: New 2026 Cape Coral regulations mandate a $350 annual Short-Term Rental (STR) registration fee and a DBPR vacation rental license.
Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks
Sale-to-List Ratio: Pelican average currently trends at 95.6%.
Verified Sold Comps:
921 SW 51st Ter: Sold $400,000 (Nov 2025) | $198/SqFt (Larger 2,016 SqFt).
5245 SW 19th Pl: Sold $380,000 (Feb 2026) | $195/SqFt.
Direct Competition:
5131 SW 18th Ave: Active at $315,000 ($190/SqFt) — Non-pool benchmark.
Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions
"Can you provide the STR revenue reports for 2024 and 2025 to verify the 'successful' claim against the $2,487/mo estimated carry?"
"Since the pool was added in 2023, has a new Elevation Certificate been issued to confirm the 'transferable' flood insurance rate remains accurate?"
"Are the solar panels mentioned in recent listing data fully paid off, or is there a UCC-1 lien that must be satisfied at closing?"
Underwriting Logic Summary
The property is priced at $249/SqFt, which is a premium over the immediate neighborhood sold median of ~$195/SqFt, justified primarily by the 2023 pool addition and 1972-to-modern mechanical overhaul. While the tax reset provides a slight monthly tailwind, forensic risk is concentrated in the STR saturation of the Pelican area, where rental prices have declined 13.6% YoY. The valuation is aggressive for the square footage but aligned with "turnkey" investor expectations for the 33914 ZIP.
Motivation Signals
$169,000
3160 Matecumbe Key Rd #221
1 BR | 1.0 BA | 593 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $285 | Est. Taxes: $2,096/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $800.
Motivation: DOM: 77 days.
$187,500
3170 Matecumbe Key Rd #115
1 BR | 1.0 BA | 732 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $256 | Est. Taxes: $2,325/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $819.
Motivation: DOM: 82 days.
$189,000
3170 Matecumbe Key Rd #112
1 BR | 1.0 BA | 593 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $319 | Est. Taxes: $2,344/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $820.
Motivation: DOM: 286 days.
$324,900
2634 Coco Plum Dr
2 BR | 2.0 BA | 864 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $376 | Est. Taxes: $4,029/yr | Est. Insurance: $5,000/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $752.
Motivation: DOM: 153 days.
$379,000
1335 SE 44th St
3 BR | 2.0 BA | 1,593 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $238 | Est. Taxes: $4,700/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $1,017.
Motivation: DOM: 121 days.
$430,000
4520 NW 34th Ter
3 BR | 2.0 BA | 1,514 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $284 | Est. Taxes: $5,332/yr | Est. Insurance: $5,000/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $861.
Motivation: DOM: 710 days.
$520,000
4405 Jacaranda Pkwy W
4 BR | 2.0 BA | N/A SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $0 | Est. Taxes: $6,448/yr | Est. Insurance: $3,200/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $804.
Motivation: DOM: 286 days.
$545,900
5000 SW 16th Pl
4 BR | 4.0 BA | 2,400 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $227 | Est. Taxes: $6,769/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $1,189.
Motivation: DOM: 144 days.
$649,999
1110 SE 23rd St
3 BR | 2.0 BA | 1,891 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $344 | Est. Taxes: $8,060/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $1,297.
Motivation: DOM: 168 days.
$689,000
125 SE 41st Ter
3 BR | 2.0 BA | 1,969 SqFt
Metrics: $/SqFt: $350 | Est. Taxes: $8,544/yr | Est. Insurance: $7,500/yr.
Carry: Monthly Burn: $1,337.
Motivation: DOM: 240 days.