Canada's snowbirds are pulling back, Florida's condo market is cracking under pressure, and Zillow just confirmed 233 U.S. cities where $1M starter homes are now the norm. Meanwhile, Airbnb's new study in Ireland could shape the next wave of global STR policy, and Vacasa inches closer to a major merger that could reshape pro management.

This week’s signals point to a shifting STR landscape—where international demand falters, domestic affordability erodes, and market resilience is increasingly local.

Weekend Edition Highlights:

📉 Miami demand collapses as listings surge and prices slip
🧾 Orlando bucks Florida’s broader housing struggles
🏠 U.S. homebuilder pullback adds to supply-side pressure
🇨🇦 Canadian travel retreat hits key Airbnb markets
📊 Redfin surges, Airbnb rebounds, mortgage rates edge up
📈 Economic signals split between durable orders and weak sentiment

and much more…..

Let’s dig into the market moves 👇

—The STR Scout Team

Zillow's Co-Founder Wishes They Did This Before The IPO

Spencer Rascoff co-founded Zillow, scaling it into a $16b real estate giant.

But everyday investors couldn’t invest until after the IPO, missing early gains.

"I wish we had done a round accessible to retail investors prior to Zillow's IPO," Spencer said.

Now he’s doing just that. Spencer has teamed up with another Zillow exec to launch Pacaso. Pacaso’s co-ownership marketplace is disrupting the $1.3t vacation home market. And unlike Zillow, you can invest in Pacaso as a private company.

With $100m+ in gross profits and rapid international expansion, Pacaso is scaling fast. Investors like SoftBank, Maveron, and more are already on board. Join them as a Pacaso shareholder.

Invest in Pacaso stock here.

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. There’s no guarantee that Pacaso will file for an IPO.}

🚤 $229K | Cherokee Village, AR: 3BD/3BA, 1739 sqft home on 2 lots! STR-ready with fenced yard, decks, coffee bar, updates, and storage building. Across from Lake Thunderbird park. Freshly painted! View Post.

🏡 $349K | Eustis, FL: 2BD/2BA, 1200 sqft 1924 bungalow, fully renovated! Successful Airbnb w/ $48K+ annual revenue, stylish updates, clawfoot tub, screened porch, fenced yard. Minutes to downtown! View Post.

🏡 $445K | Packwood, WA: 2BD/1BA, 540 sqft updated cabin on 9583 sqft lot! Cozy open layout, hot tub, private deck, RV hookup. STR potential with golf, pool, and river access amenities. View Post.

🌊 $599K | Carolina Beach, NC: 2BD/2.5BA, 1271 sqft waterfront condo w/ boat slip! STR-friendly, marina views, elevator, new mechanicals, 1.5 blocks to beach. Sold partially furnished. Rental history available! View Post.

🚤 $615K | Milton, FL: 3BD/2BA, 1524 sqft waterfront home with 100ft canal frontage, boat ramp, lift, and seawall. Fully furnished, elevator, chef’s kitchen, spa-style suite. Turnkey coastal dream! View Post.

🏖️ $625K | Wilmington Island, GA: 4BD/3BA, 2114 sqft fully remodeled STR! Zoned/permitted, sleeps 10, minutes to Savannah & Tybee. Turnkey, no HOA, established listing, low-maintenance. View Post.

🏔️ $640K | Gatlinburg, TN: 1BD/2BA, 1320 sqft secluded cabin with 3 decks, full game room. Turnkey STR with $75K 2024 bookings, 300+ glowing reviews. Built 2017, prime location guests love! View Post.

🌲 $675K | Sterling, PA: 2BD/2BA, 1698 sqft cabin + 1BD cottage on 10+ acres! $75K proven income, $300K+ potential. Pond, hot tub, sauna, fire pit, flexible zoning, event barn. Huge STR upside! View Post.

🌲 $825K | Pocono Lake, PA: 4BD/4BA, 3702 sqft cabin on 4.5 acres! Bonus game rooms, wet bar, fireplace, hot tub. Turnkey for retreat, full-time, or STR investment. New well pump/water heater. View Post.

🏔️ $2.25M | Highlands, NC: 6BD/6BA mountain estate on 1.49 acres! Fully renovated main home + guest cottage, gated entry, lake/green views, huge covered deck, rec area. 4 min to Main St! View Post.

📰 News Nuggets | Trending Headlines

Skim fresh, real-time headlines shaping Airbnb, housing, and STR investing—stay current, catch the signals, and understand what’s driving the market.

🔎 Airbnb and ESRI have collaborated on a new groundbreaking study tracking short-term rental impacts across Ireland's housing markets. The research aims to provide more data-driven insights for policymakers as communities continue debating STR regulations and their effects on local housing availability and affordability. Read

🇨🇦 Canadian travelers are dramatically reducing their U.S. travel plans and Airbnb bookings amid growing economic concerns and changing travel preferences. This shift represents yet another blow to American tourism markets already struggling with declining international visitation, particularly impacting popular snowbird destinations that have historically relied on Canadian visitors. Insights

🏠 Vacasa shareholders have been advised by influential proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services to approve the company's pending merger with Casago. The recommendation moves the troubled vacation rental management platform closer to completing its acquisition, potentially reshaping the professional STR management landscape as industry consolidation continues. Details

🌊 Americans seeking beach getaways can explore ten stunning domestic destinations without needing passports, including hidden gems across Florida, Hawaii, California, and U.S. territories. These destinations offer comparable experiences to international hotspots while eliminating passport requirements, potentially boosting domestic tourism as travelers seek convenience and budget-friendly alternatives to overseas vacations. Explore

🏙️ In 233 U.S. cities, even starter homes now command price tags of $1 million or more, according to shocking new Zillow data that highlights America's ongoing housing affordability crisis. This dramatic threshold expansion affects markets nationwide, forcing more potential homebuyers to consider alternative markets or long-term rentals instead of purchasing property. Analysis

🧳 America's international tourism standing has slipped further as the nation lost its position as the world's second most visited destination, with a European competitor reclaiming the spot. This ongoing decline in international visitors continues despite aggressive marketing campaigns, highlighting deeper structural challenges in attracting global travelers to U.S. destinations. Trends

✈️ U.S. tourists are traveling abroad in unprecedented numbers while international visitors increasingly bypass America, creating a staggering $60+ billion tourism trade imbalance. This dramatic shift in global tourism patterns threatens numerous hospitality sectors including short-term rentals that have historically benefited from international travelers seeking authentic local experiences. Report

🏰 Disney's theme park magic faces significant threats as international tourism to the United States continues its troubling decline. The entertainment giant's heavily tourism-dependent business model faces mounting pressure as fewer international visitors make the trip to iconic destinations like Walt Disney World, potentially forcing operational adjustments that could ripple throughout surrounding rental markets. Story

📱 LinkedIn business community discussions highlight growing concerns about Disney's financial outlook as travel industry pressures mount. Tourism decline impacts are now reaching beyond immediate hospitality sectors to affect major entertainment companies and their extensive ecosystems, signaling broader economic implications that investors and property owners should closely monitor. Conversation

📉 Miami's housing market suffers a breathtaking collapse in demand, with listing inventory skyrocketing and prices beginning a concerning downward slide. The dramatic shift arrives after years of pandemic-fueled growth, catching many short-term rental investors off-guard and potentially forcing difficult decisions for those who entered the market at peak pricing. Investigation

🌴 Florida's condo market faces severe distress as insurance rates, maintenance costs, and special assessments skyrocket, forcing many owners to sell at significant losses. This market deterioration creates particular challenges for STR investors who purchased condos at premium prices expecting strong returns, only to face rapidly escalating carrying costs eroding profitability. Examination

🏘️ In fifteen major cities, condo prices have already plummeted 10-22.5%, with Florida markets experiencing particularly severe and accelerating declines. This unraveling of the condo market's previous pricing "absurdity" creates both urgent challenges for current STR investors and potential opportunities for those with capital ready to acquire distressed assets. Data

🏝️ Florida's growing insurance crisis is creating ripple effects far beyond state lines, with particular impact on New York property owners and snowbirds. Many Florida property owners face impossible choices as insurance costs triple or quadruple, forcing difficult decisions about maintaining second homes or investment properties that previously served vacation rental markets. Crisis

🏙️ Orlando's real estate market shows surprising resilience amid broader Florida struggles, with moderating prices but continued buyer interest in the tourism-driven central Florida region. The theme park capital maintains stronger fundamentals than coastal markets, providing a potential bright spot for STR operators focused on family-friendly vacation rentals near major attractions. Updates

🏠 Nearly half of home sellers are now offering substantial concessions to attract increasingly hesitant buyers in today's challenging market conditions. This dramatic shift benefits buyers but creates complex calculations for property investors considering transitions between long-term and short-term rental strategies or those looking to exit investment positions entirely. Statistics

🏗️ America's largest homebuilder is strategically pulling back from Sun Belt markets as housing demand weakens across previously booming southern states. This significant pivot signals deepening concerns about oversupply and affordability challenges in regions that have attracted substantial short-term rental investment over recent years. Strategy

🔍 Austin's housing market troubles intensify as the once red-hot Texas capital experiences dramatic cooling, with substantial price adjustments and rising inventory catching many recent investors off guard. The city's STR market faces particular challenges as both tourism patterns shift and regulatory scrutiny increases amid broader housing affordability concerns. Perspective

📊 New house inventory remains stuck at the highest level since 2007, with particular oversupply concerns concentrated in southern and western regions. Builders increasingly offer aggressive incentives to move properties in markets experiencing significant supply-demand imbalances, creating competitive challenges for existing property owners considering sales. Research

🏘️ Several American cities are experiencing dramatic house price corrections, with Texas markets showing particularly concerning trends as buyer demand evaporates in previously overheated regions. This accelerating price adjustment creates complex investment calculations for property owners weighing short-term rental strategies against traditional sales in rapidly changing conditions. Analysis

🚨 Spooked house hunters are dropping out of the real estate market as economic uncertainties multiply, further complicating the housing landscape for sellers and investors alike. This growing buyer hesitation reflects broader concerns about interest rates, employment stability, and potential recession risks that are reshaping residential real estate dynamics nationwide. Insights

🏡 The housing market stalls as existing homeowners increasingly struggle to sell properties amid historically high interest rates and changing buyer preferences. This growing market friction creates complex ripple effects throughout real estate ecosystems, influencing investment strategies and potentially increasing rental inventory as failed sellers explore alternative options. Trends

📉 March home sales dropped significantly, marking concerning weakness in the traditionally important spring selling season as affordability challenges persist despite slightly moderating mortgage rates. This continued sales sluggishness signals broader structural issues in housing markets that could maintain upward pressure on rental demand across both short and long-term sectors. Report

📈 US home sales jump unexpectedly in March according to competing analysis that highlights the complex and sometimes contradictory signals emerging from today's fragmented real estate markets. This data divergence underscores the importance of hyperlocal market knowledge for STR investors navigating rapidly changing conditions across different regions and property types. Statistics

🏕️ Trailer park investments emerge as America's surprising new real estate boom, with significant institutional capital flowing into manufactured housing communities offering affordable living solutions. This growing alternative housing sector creates both competition and complementary opportunities for traditional STR investors seeking diversification in today's challenging market environment. Innovation

🌲 Anxious second homeowners are increasingly fleeing Maine as property tax burdens, maintenance costs, and changing lifestyle preferences reshape vacation home markets. This accelerating exodus from traditionally strong northeastern vacation regions signals broader shifts in second home ownership patterns that directly impact seasonal rental supply and investment opportunities. Exodus

✈️ Summer vacation planning faces significant headwinds as fewer Americans commit to travel due to persistent inflation concerns and budget pressures. This growing consumer hesitation creates particular challenges for STR owners counting on strong summer booking seasons to maintain profitability amid rising operational costs and increasing market competition. Survey

⚠️ The United States faces warnings about economic threats potentially worse than recession if proposed tariff policies are implemented, creating broader macroeconomic uncertainty that could further impact housing and travel markets. These escalating concerns add another layer of complexity for property investors already navigating challenging market conditions and shifting consumer behaviors. Warning

📊 Michigan consumer sentiment index rises but fails to meet analyst forecasts, highlighting the fragile and tentative nature of America's economic recovery. This mixed consumer confidence picture creates ongoing uncertainty for travel and hospitality sectors dependent on discretionary spending, requiring careful strategic planning from STR operators navigating volatile market conditions. Barometer

📊 Economic Calendar Watch

Housing and Economic Calendar Report | Week of April 21–25, 2025

This week, mortgage rates edged down slightly, builder sentiment remained subdued, and housing inventory continued its upward trend. Economic indicators pointed to ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, while labor market data showed signs of resilience.

📈 “Policy uncertainty is having a negative impact on home builders, making it difficult for them to accurately price homes and make critical business decisions.” — Robert Dietz, Chief Economist, NAHB

🏡 Housing Market Reports

🗓️ Economic Calendar

🔍 Key Takeaways

• Mortgage Rates: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.81%, remaining below the 7% threshold but still elevated compared to historical norms.

• Homebuilder Sentiment: The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 40, indicating modest improvement but still reflecting cautious builder outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

• Housing Starts and Permits: Housing starts declined by 11.4% in March, signaling potential headwinds in new construction, while building permits also saw a decrease, suggesting a slowdown in future projects.

• Labor Market: New home sales exceeded expectations, reaching 693,000 units in March, indicating continued strength in the housing market despite higher mortgage rates.

• Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence: Durable goods orders rose by 2.6%, showing resilience in manufacturing, while consumer sentiment dipped to 62.0, reflecting ongoing concerns about the economic outlook.

📌 Market Outlook

Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile in the near term, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve policy decisions. The housing market continues to grapple with affordability challenges, but increasing inventory levels may provide some relief for buyers. Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with strength in certain sectors offset by consumer caution.

🧾 Source Links:

• Mortgage Rates – Freddie Mac PMMS

• Housing Data – U.S. Census Bureau

• HMI – National Association of Home Builders

• ADP Jobs Report – ADP National Employment Report

• BLS – Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment

• Consumer Sentiment – University of Michigan

• Economic Calendar – MarketWatch Economic Calendar 

🏡 STR & Real Estate Stock Trends

📈 Headline: Redfin (RDFN) Surges 7.4% This Week, Leading STR-Related Stocks

🟢 Builders Up | 🟢 STR Platforms Up | 🔴 STR Operators Mixed | 🔴 Mortgage Rates Up

📊 Weekly Stock Trends

🏦 Mortgage Rates

💡 Quick Insights

• Redfin (RDFN) led the pack with a 7.4% weekly gain, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the online real estate sector.

• Airbnb (ABNB) rebounded with a 2.9% increase, signaling potential stabilization after recent declines.

• Mortgage rates saw a slight uptick, with the 30-year fixed rate rising by 0.05%, continuing the upward YTD trend.

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