Miami: The Condo Liquidity Trap

1 Big Thing: The "SIRS" Reckoning is Here: 

Miami’s condo market has officially hit a structural ceiling. As of February 2026, the deadline for Structural Integrity Reserve Studies (SIRS) has passed, triggering a massive wave of forced price discovery.

We are seeing a "Bifurcated Liquidity" event: while luxury new construction and single-family homes remain resilient, units in legacy 30+ year buildings are becoming un-financeable "liquidity traps."

With special assessments hitting as high as $150,000 per unit, owners are being forced to choose between a fire sale or an actuarial holding pattern they can't afford.

Why it matters: The "Post-SIRS" Discount

The "Lowball" is back, but it’s no longer about market sentiment—it’s about math. Sophisticated investors are pivoting away from the 2000s-era "glass and steel" dream to capture high-yield MTR (Medium-Term Rental) premiums in Fee-Simple assets or "branded" residences.

In Miami, the real deal isn't found in the listing price; it’s found in the verified health of the association's balance sheet.

By the numbers:

• Inventory (Condo): 14–20 Months (Luxury Tiers)

• Median DOM: 115 Days (+11.6% YoY)

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 93.4% (The "Gap" is widening)

• Insurance Burn: 15-20% of Gross Rental Income

📡 Social Sentiment: Miami

The Vibe: Local sentiment is toxic regarding "SIRS" assessments and insurance "Shadow Mortgages," with a growing "Direct or Die" movement among STR operators to bypass platform fees.

• Reddit Signal: Investors in r/Miami are flagging "emergency maintenance assessments" of up to $150k per unit, calling older product a "sinking ship" for those without cash reserves.

• X (Twitter) Signal: Local agents report a spike in "Association Terminations" where developers are aggressively buying out distressed 30+ year buildings to rebuild luxury towers.

The bottom line: The days of "passive" condo appreciation in Miami are over; profitability in 2026 belongs to the forensic buyer.

Go deeper: Dig into the full intelligence report below to see which assets are drowning in carry costs and where the motivated exits are hiding.

Happy scouting,

Andy T.
STR Scout

🔒 STR Scout+

Miami Bifurcated Liquidity

• Buy-Side Reality: A clear Buyer’s Market has solidified in the condo sector due to elevated inventory (14–20 months in luxury tiers), while single-family assets remain resilient with tighter supply. High cash-to-close ratios (50%+) dominate the upper echelon, insulating the top end from interest rate volatility.

• Supply vs. Saturation: Newer "branded" inventory is absorbing at a premium, whereas older 30+ year buildings face a "liquidity trap" driven by mandated structural reserves and rising HOA assessments, leading to significant price discovery.

• Valuation Math: At current ~6.2% mortgage rates, cap rates on traditional fee-simple long-term assets are compressed (3-4%), pushing sophisticated investors toward high-ADR short-term strategies or tactical buyouts of distressed older associations.

Micro-Market Vibe: Brickell / Downtown

The Pulse

• 75% Neighborhood Context: Transitioning from a regional financial hub to a true 24/7 global district. The "Citadel Effect" continues to drive high-earning professional migration, creating a surge in demand for walkability and ultra-high-speed connectivity.

• The Vibe: "Wall Street South"—high-density, glass-and-steel verticality, characterized by power lunches and a rapidly maturing luxury retail core.

• The Yield Strategy: MTR (Medium-Term Rental) focus. Corporate relocations and the 30–90 day executive stay segment currently offer the most stable risk-adjusted premium over traditional LTR.

• The "Why": Completion of major transit-oriented developments and the sustained "Live Local" micro-unit incentives are concentrating density into this specific corridor for 2026.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Trends

Market Pulse: STR Performance

Thesis: The Multi-Use Lifestyle Play

• STR (Yield): Nightly viability is heavily dependent on "Certificate of Use" compliance. Data shows a 36% market shift toward 30+ night minimums to bypass local zoning friction, with peak revenues hitting $5,500+ during the Q1 winter circuit.

• MTR (Stability): Strongest hedge for 2026. Executive stays (30–90 days) capture 1.5x LTR rates without the turnover costs or regulatory scrutiny of nightly rentals.

• Pied-à-Terre (Equity): Lifestyle storage remains high for South American and Northeast domestic buyers. Branded residences (St. Regis, Four Seasons) carry a 25% price-per-square-foot premium but demonstrate 90% owner-occupancy, providing a floor for resale value.

• LTR (Floor): Miami-Dade multifamily vacancy has ticked up to 7.4% following a wave of new deliveries, suggesting traditional landlords face increased competition and must offer "concession-driven" pricing to maintain occupancy.

Asset Analysis: Miami Core

• The Big Picture: The market has moved from "frenzied" to "functional." Sellers are now forced to concede on price or terms, particularly in older condo stock where SIRS (Structural Integrity Reserve Studies) are triggering six-figure special assessments.

• Yield Hook: Amenity gaps in mid-tier buildings (lack of cold plunges, co-working, or EV charging) allow for "Value-Add" plays where tactical renovations can drive outsized MTR premiums.

• Red Flags: Insurance premiums remain a systemic headwind, frequently consuming 15-20% of gross rental income. Legislation around short-term rental "tax parity" in 2026 may further squeeze thin nightly margins.

Consultative Negotiation: Investigative Questions

• "Has the association completed its 2026 Structural Integrity Reserve Study, and what is the current percentage of 'Fully Funded' reserves vs. 'Statutory Minimum'?"

• "What percentage of the building's units are currently being utilized as non-owner occupied (rental) assets?" (Critical for financing/Fannie Mae eligibility).

• "Can the seller provide a 24-month lookback on insurance premium increases for this specific legal description?"

• "Are there any pending litigation matters or 'Special Assessments' currently being discussed in board minutes but not yet formally levied?"

AI Impact Summary

• Conviction Score: Moderate. High liquidity in luxury and stable demand from corporate migration is offset by significant insurance and regulatory headwinds.

• Technical Signal: Market is in a "Price Discovery" phase. Bullish on Fee-Simple Single Family and Branded Residences; Bearish on 30+ year un-renovated condo stock due to SIRS-related liability.

Investor Focus Disclaimer: This report strictly filters out "Market Noise" (fractionals, timeshares, and deed-restricted housing) to provide data on Fee Simple, investment-grade real estate only.

^Sources: Data synthesized via VMLS, Realtor/MLS, and AirRoi.com.

Property Scout Brief

$514,900 — 1200 N Brickell Bay Dr #2222, Miami

1 BR | 1 BA | 825 SqFt | $624/SqFt | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Miami 33131

February 2026. Miami is currently categorized as a Buyer’s Market. High inventory levels and low buyer competition dominate the submarket. The average home in this ZIP code sells for 6% below list price with a median 110 Days on Market (DOM).

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolating property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: Listing anchors value to "ready to make money" STR status and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Focuses on the building’s rare status as a legal Brickell STR play.

• Price Adjustments: Total listing age exceeds 390 days (including previous 2025 listing iterations). Current ask is 6.2% lower than the May 2025 listing of $549k.

• Appreciation History: Purchased in June 2021 for $301,000. The current asking price represents a 71% gross appreciation over 4.7 years.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points

• Actuarial Risk: The building was completed in 2004. Critical components (HVAC/Water Heater) are at the 22-year mark, exceeding the 15-year insurance underwriting threshold for replacement unless verified in the renovation.

• Legislative Audit: SIRS / SB 154 Binary Check. As of Feb 2026, the building has passed the Dec 31, 2025 deadline for Structural Integrity Reserve Study funding.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 94% (ZIP average).

• Verified Sold Comps (Same Stack/Model):

  • #2821: Sold Dec 2025 | $440,000 ($533/SF)

  • #2112: Sold Aug 2025 | $450,000 ($550/SF)

• Direct Competition:

  • #2506: Active | $499,000 ($605/SF)

  • #2814: Active | $450,000 ($550/SF)

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "What is the current dollar amount of the SIRS-mandated reserve funding per unit, and was a special assessment levied to meet the Dec 2025 deadline?"

2. "Can the seller provide a 12-month trailing 1099 to verify the STR revenue claims vs. the projected $1,521/mo fixed carry?"

3. "Does the 'Complete Renovation' include permitted replacement of the HVAC and Water Heater, or are these units original 2004 equipment?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The unit is positioned at $624/SqFt, a significant premium compared to the $533–$550/SqFt neighborhood floor established by recent 2025 sales in the same building. The 2026 tax reset will increase fixed carry by approximately $200/month. Risk is concentrated in the structural reserve funding status post-SB 154 deadline.

$824,999 — 1232 SW 30th Pl, Miami

2 BR | 2 BA | 1,344 SqFt | $614/SqFt | Multi-Family (Duplex)

Forensic Market Data: Parkdale North (33135)

February 2026. Parkdale North is currently a Buyer’s Market. Inventory levels in the 33135 ZIP code have expanded by over 70% year-over-year, pushing the months-of-supply to approximately 6.4 months. Properties in this submarket are selling for an average of 5% below list price with a median 69 Days on Market (DOM).

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolating property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: Listing anchors heavily to "cash-flowing" potential ($7k–$10k/mo revenue) and turnkey renovations. Phrases like "JUST REDUCED FOR FAST SALE" suggest a transition from the original ambitious pricing strategy.

• Price Adjustments: Originally listed at $899,000 in October 2025. The current $825k price represents an 8.2% reduction after 120+ days of total market exposure across listing cycles.

• Appreciation History: Last sold in August 2023 for $620,000. The current ask represents a 33% increase in 30 months, roughly 1.1% per month.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

• Actuarial Risk: The roof was replaced in 2023, significantly lowering insurance premium friction and securing a 15-20 year actuarial runway. However, the structure dates to 1953; plumbing (cast iron vs. PVC) and electrical panel brand/age remain unverified.

• Legislative Audit: Property is a duplex in the City of Miami. Short-Term Rental (STR) Compliance: Requires a Certificate of Use (CU) and Business Tax Receipt (BTR). Listing claims "Licensed for STR," which must be verified against current City of Miami zoning (T-transects) and state DBPR records.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 95% (Parkdale North Average).

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 3321 SW 18th St: Sold Jan 2026 | $780,000 ($600/SF)

  • 1020 SW 33rd Ave: Sold Dec 2025 | $660,000 ($498/SF) (Older condition)

• Direct Competition:

  • 3021 SW 12th St: Active | $899,000 ($622/SF) (3BR/2BA)

  • 1511 SW 4th Pl: Active | $530,000 ($320/SF) (Value-add opportunity)

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "Can the seller provide the trailing 12-month (T12) P&L specifically broken down by unit, and does the '70-80% occupancy' include or exclude owner-blocked dates?"

2. "Is the Certificate of Use (CU) for Short-Term Rental current, and does the property sit in a transect zone (T4, T5, or T6) that permits lodging without a variance?"

3. "Does the 2023 renovation include full replacement of horizontal cast-iron plumbing under the slab, or was the update cosmetic (countertops/flooring) only?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The asset is priced at $614/SqFt, tracking slightly above the recent $600/SqFt benchmark for renovated product in the immediate radius. The primary forensic risk is the 92% projected tax increase ($785/mo to $1,512/mo) once the sale triggers the "Save Our Homes" reset, which will immediately compress the stated $7k–$10k/mo gross yield.

$2,750,000 — 99 SW 7th St Ph-4204, Miami

3 BR | 3 BA | 1,640 SqFt | $1,677/SqFt | Condo (New Construction)

Forensic Market Data: Upper Brickell (33131)

February 2026. Upper Brickell is currently a Buyer’s Market. Inventory levels for luxury new construction are high, leading to a median 187 Days on Market (DOM) for premium units. Average sale prices are currently trending 6% below list price as buyers exert more negotiating power.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolating property-level liabilities; excludes mortgage debt service.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

• Motivational Scan: Listing anchors to "exclusive Penthouse Collection" and "flexible luxury living" with full STR licensing. Narrative focuses on 2027 delivery and five-star hospitality via Avra.

• Price Adjustments: Listed at $2,520,000 in June 2025; price increased to $2,750,000 (+9.1%) in January 2026. Total exposure is 250+ days on market.

• Appreciation History: As new construction, there is no previous sale history for this specific air right. However, the $1,677/SqFt ask represents a significant premium over existing "Tier A" Brickell inventory.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

• Actuarial Risk: Q4 2027 Anticipated Delivery. The building topped off in January 2026, putting it technically "ahead of schedule," but typical luxury finish-outs in Miami face 18-24 month lead times for certificates of occupancy (CO).

• Legislative Audit: SB 4-D / SIRS Compliance. As a new build, this property will be required to maintain a Structural Integrity Reserve Study from inception, which is factored into the $1.00+ per SqFt HOA fee.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 94% (Luxury segment average).

• Verified Sold Comps (Nearby High-Rise):

  • 55 SW 9th St Ph 4501: Sold Jan 2026 | $1,500,000 ($972/SF) (10 years older)

  • 88 SW 7th St #712: Sold Nov 2025 | $1,250,000 ($917/SF) (11 years older)

• Direct Competition (Lofty Brickell):

  • #PH-3901: Active | $3,400,000 ($1,888/SF) (Larger floor plan)

  • #PH-4003: Active | $2,648,000 ($1,709/SF)

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

1. "What is the specific developer management fee percentage for the on-site STR program, and is there a 'first-right' refusal clause for third-party managers?"

2. "Does the 'fully furnished by Artefacto' package include full operational OS&E (linens, kitchenware, electronics) required for immediate STR listing?"

3. "Are there any developer 'hard costs' or 'closing contributions' currently being offered to offset the 1.5%–2% developer fee typically charged on Miami new construction?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The unit is priced at $1,677/SqFt, a ~72% premium over established 10-year-old luxury inventory in the same ZIP code. This "new construction premium" is tied to the asset's ability to operate as a legal, unrestricted STR. Underwriting must account for a significant carry gap until the Q4 2027 delivery and the eventual $55,000+ annual tax liability once the building is added to the tax roll at full value.

Seller Motivation Signals

PRICE VS. FATIGUE OUTLIERS

The chart above illustrates the top 15 stagnant assets. Note the extreme outlier at 1,282 days, representing a potential critical failure in pricing strategy, or tired new construction, and a prime target for aggressive negotiation.

Market Intelligence Summary

• Inventory Fatigue Signal: The calculated Median Days on Market (DOM) for this dataset is 78 days. Assets exceeding this benchmark are moving into the "Motivation Peak" zone.

• Market Context: With a default appreciation of +50.2% since 2019, entry-level stagnation at high DOM suggests a significant disconnect between seller expectations and current carry-cost realities.

• Forensic Selection: The following 10 finalists were extracted from the Top 15 highest-DOM pool and sorted by price (ascending) to highlight the most accessible "fatigue" opportunities.