Reunion Resort: The HOA-Insurance Squeeze

1 Big Thing: Reunion is hitting an "Affordability Paradox."

While the community remains a premier STR (Short-Term Rental) destination due to its proximity to Disney, the combined weight of 2026 insurance premiums and ballooning HOA fees is triggering a "Premium Pivot." Investors are no longer just underwriting purchase prices; they are modeling for a "Shadow Mortgage" of carry costs that can exceed $1,500/month before a single guest checks in.

Why it matters: The "List Price" is becoming a vanity metric.

With a Median Days on Market (DOM) now stretching to 143 days for active inventory, the power has shifted entirely to the buyer. However, the wins aren't coming via massive price drops—they are being won in the "invisible layer" of the contract: massive seller concessions for interest rate buy-downs and 12-month insurance escrow prepays.

By the numbers:

• Median Price (Active): $425,300

• Median DOM: 143 Days (Significantly higher than the Florida average of 86)

• Median $/SqFt: $246

• The "Gap": 96.3% (Sale-to-List ratio, indicating a ~4% average discount)

• Active Inventory: 42 Units (Reunion-specific)

📡 Social Sentinel: Reunion / Kissimmee

The Vibe: High-anxiety "Pre-payment" culture is taking hold as HOAs attempt to de-risk 2026 insurance volatility.

• Reddit Signal: Homeowners in Florida-specific subreddits are flagging "Special Assessment" fatigue. A notable trend in r/HOA discusses boards proposing quarterly dues increases to cover insurance premiums. This is pressuring many mid-tier condo owners toward the exits.

• Operational Signal: Investors on r/FloridaRealEstate are reporting aggressive “Tourist Tax audits happening roughly 12 months after starting an STR, adding a compliance "tax" that many part-time hosts failed to calculate.

• X (Twitter) Signal: Local luxury agents are pivoting their marketing from "Rental Yields" to "Stability & Security," signaling that the speculative "get rich quick" STR era in Osceola County is being replaced by a more sober, institutional-style "Asset Management" approach.

Reunion Resort 2026 Market Analysis This (non-sponsored) video provides a deep dive into the 2026 inventory shifts and price cut secrets specific to the Orlando/Reunion corridor, reinforcing the data on why homes are sitting longer on the market.

🔒 STR Scout+

Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide

• Buy-Side Reality: The Orlando market has transitioned into a "Balanced-to-Buyer" state as of February 2026. While single-family inventory has climbed significantly (up ~16% year-over-year), high insurance premiums and sustained 6%+ interest rates have narrowed the "valuation math" for investors. Properties now require higher-than-average operational efficiency or significant seller concessions (averaging $5,000–$10,000 in closing credits) to achieve cash-flow neutrality.

• Supply vs. Saturation: Active inventory has reached levels not seen in a decade, creating a "Saturation Divide." High-end, heavily themed resort assets in pockets like Kissimmee/Four Corners continue to command premium ADRs, while "commodity" single-family homes in generic residential zones face intense competition from both new construction and a growing pool of Medium-Term Rental (MTR) conversions.

• Valuation Math: With a median list price of $415,000, debt service on a 30-year fixed loan at current rates (~6.2%) necessitates a monthly gross yield of at least $3,200–$3,500 to cover PITI and high Florida insurance costs. Current median STR revenues of $2,594 suggest that standard "median" properties are currently underperforming relative to debt costs, signaling a need for assets that hit the Top 10% performance bracket.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory

Market Pulse: STR Performance

Thesis: The Multi-Use Lifestyle Play

• Yield (STR): Pure STR plays in Orlando are increasingly "binary." Success is concentrated in large-format homes (8+ guests) that offer amenities (pools, theater rooms) that hotels cannot replicate. Traditional 3-bedroom "commodity" homes are struggling to maintain occupancy above 45% without significant price-slashing.

• Demand Stability (MTR): The 30–90 day rental segment is emerging as a critical hedge. With Orlando’s medical city expansion and net in-migration, MTRs targeting traveling healthcare professionals or relocating families provide a "safety floor." Roughly 35.1% of the market is already adopting 30+ night minimums to bypass local STR restrictions or capture higher-stability tenants.

• Equity Storage (Lifestyle): The "Pied-à-Terre" model serves as a long-term equity play. Investors are increasingly prioritizing locations like Winter Garden or Lake Nona where residential appreciation remains steady (2-4% annually), using STR/MTR income purely to offset carry costs rather than for immediate high-yield cash flow.

Asset Analysis: Orlando (Metro)

• The Big Picture: The market is at a "reset" point. The post-pandemic volatility has subsided, and supply and demand are finally moving in tandem. Buyers have the strongest leverage seen since 2019, with nearly 70% of homes selling below list price.

• Yield Hook: Outsized performance is found in "Mega-Housings" (10+ bedrooms) within specific resort-zoned nodes. These assets leverage group travel economies of scale to maintain ADRs above $350 even during shoulder seasons.

• Operational Moats/Red Flags: * Moat: Properties with "Themed Build-outs" and established "Superhost" history are maintaining 80%+ occupancy.

  • Red Flag: Rising insurance costs and HOA "STP" (Short-Term Prohibitions) in non-resort communities. "Market Noise" assets like deed-restricted condos are seeing higher-than-average price drops as buyers flee restrictive covenants.

Consultative Negotiation

• Insurance Audit: "What is the specific quoted premium for the current year, and does the property have a 'Wind Mitigation' or '4-Point Inspection' report from the last six months to justify that rate?"

• Seller Motivation: "With the median days on market now at 89, has the seller already committed to a new purchase, and would they prefer a quick close at a discount or a higher price with a significant seller-paid rate buy-down?"

• Regulatory Resilience: "Is this specific parcel located within a 'Grandfathered' STR zone, and are there any pending HOA or municipal votes scheduled regarding rental duration restrictions?"

• CapEx Forecast: "Given the high-intensity use of STRs, what is the remaining life on the HVAC and Pool Equipment, and will the seller provide a credit to cover the next scheduled replacement cycle?"

Property Scout Intel

$290,000 — 7740 Sandy Ridge Dr #122, Reunion, FL 34747

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3 BR | 3 BA | 1,500 SqFt | $193 | Condominium

The Investor Summary

Ground-floor, fully furnished turnkey unit with "no restrictions" on short-term or long-term rental utility. Located 7 miles from Disney, this asset features a modern kitchen and exclusive Spectrum Resort membership, providing high-leverage access to 3 championship golf courses and a waterpark.

Forensic Market Data: Reunion/34747

February 2026. The Citrus Ridge/Reunion pocket is currently a defined Buyer’s Market with elevated inventory levels and low competition. Average list-to-sale ratios are hovering at 4% below asking, with a median Days on Market (DOM) of approximately 83 days.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Sales History & Investor Signals

• Last Sale Delta: Acquired $427,900 in 2023. Current ask represents a ($137,900) (-32.2%) total depreciation.

• Annualized Growth: -10.7% per year. (Benchmark: 4-6% for this ZIP).

• Price Velocity: 3 Days on Market. This is a fresh "re-pricing" listing following a significant loss in value from the 2023 peak.

• Investor Signal: Motivated institutional or distressed sell-off. The 32% haircut from the 2023 purchase price indicates a "get-out-now" strategy, likely driven by the $1,233 total monthly non-mortgage carry (HOA + CDD).

Price Exposure & Structural Audit

• Linguistic Tells: "MAJOR DEAL ALERT," "No restrictions," "Fully Furnished," "Long-term and Short-term rentals."

• Actuarial Risk: Roof: 2023 (3 years old) | HVAC: 2023 (3 years old). Status: PASS.

• Legislative Audit: CDD Y/N: YES. This property carries a significant annual assessment ($2,824) on top of traditional taxes and HOA, impacting net yield.

Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 96.1% (ZIP 34747 Average).

• Verified Sold Comps:

  1. 7740 Sandy Ridge Dr #124 | Dec 2025 | $288,630 | $192 PPSF

  2. 7770 Sandy Ridge Dr #119 | Nov 2025 | $285,000 | $191 PPSF

Critical Due-Diligence Questions

1. SIRS Compliance: As a 2023 build, does the condo association have a fully funded Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) to prevent future special assessments under Florida's 2026 safety mandates?

2. ADR vs. Carry: Does the seasonal Average Daily Rate (ADR) support a $1,680/month "burn rate" (fixed carry) before debt service and management fees?

3. Membership Portability: Is the "Included Membership" to the 3 golf courses and waterpark deeded to the owner or a transferable guest-access right?

Underwriting Logic Summary

The asking PPSF ($193) is perfectly aligned with the neighborhood floor established by recent December sales ($191-$192 PPSF). While the 32% loss from the 2023 sale price suggests a stabilized entry point, the $1,233/month combined HOA/CDD creates a high-pressure hurdle for cash-flow. This is a "Volume Play": high amenity access justifies a Disney-proximate premium, but only if the investor can maintain high occupancy to outrun the aggressive fixed carry.

Full Disclosure: Data aggregation for informational purposes only. Not financial or real estate advice.

$195,000 — 12544 Floridays Resort Dr Unit 611B, Orlando, FL 32821

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2 BR | 2 BA | 957 SqFt | $204 | Condo-Hotel

The Investor Summary

Top-floor unit in Building B of the award-winning Floridays Resort, a designated "Walt Disney World Good Neighbor® Hotel." This asset is a pure "Utility Play" for STR investors, featuring a condo-hotel structure where the HOA fee includes electricity and water, drastically simplifying operational overhead for out-of-state owners.

Forensic Market Data: International Drive / 32821

February 2026. The 32821 ZIP code is currently a Balanced Market with a notable shift toward high inventory. While typical home values have seen a -2.9% year-over-year dip, the condo-hotel segment remains highly liquid with roughly 6.8 to 7.2 months of supply. Days on Market (DOM) has stretched to ~29–35 days, giving buyers room for negotiation.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Sales History & Investor Signals

• Last Sale Delta: No recent sale recorded; historical public records for this specific unit indicate long-term hold.

• Annualized Growth: N/A. (Market Benchmark: 2-4% for Orlando condos in 32821).

• Price Velocity: 13 days on market. Listed at $195k, which is slightly above the Redfin Estimate of $190,483, signaling the seller is testing the premium for a "Top Floor" location.

• Investor Signal: Strategic Portfolio Disposition. The pricing is aggressive compared to the $214k–$225k asks for similar units in the same building, likely aimed at a cash-buyer exit before further 2026 inventory increases.

Price Exposure & Structural Audit

• Linguistic Tells: "TOP FLOOR," "Condo-Hotel," "HOA includes electricity," "STR or vacation home only."

• Actuarial Risk: HVAC: 2020 (6 years old). PASS. While the building is 2006 (20 years old), the concrete/block construction and tiled roof typically satisfy 2026 insurance requirements for condos.

• Legislative Audit: SIRS Mandatory: Per Florida's 2026 Structural Integrity Reserve Study laws, ensure the association has fully funded reserves for the roof and load-bearing walls. This unit is zoned P-D (Planned Development) for Condo-Hotel use—whole-home STR is permitted.

Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 95% (Area Average for Condos).

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 12544 Floridays #103B | May 2025 | $214,000 | $223/PSF

  • 13037 Mulberry Park #5211 | Jan 2026 | $210,000 | $201/PSF

  • 12544 Floridays #402B | Feb 2026 | $225,000 | $235/PSF (Active)

Critical Due-Diligence Questions

1. SIRS Compliance: Has the association completed its 2025/2026 Structural Integrity Reserve Study, and are there any pending special assessments for reserve "catch-up" funding?

2. Management Split: What is the specific revenue split if using the on-site Paramount Hospitality Management vs. an outside 3rd-party manager?

3. Owner Usage: Are there any black-out dates or maximum stay limits for owners wishing to use the unit personally?

Underwriting Logic Summary

At $204/PSF, this unit is priced significantly below recent neighborhood comps ($223-$235/PSF), likely due to the higher HOA carrying costs inherent in condo-hotels. The "all-in" HOA (electricity/water) provides a floor for operating margins, but the 14.6-month supply in the wider Orlando condo market suggests the buyer has leverage. The top-floor position is a defensible asset that justifies the ask, provided the SIRS reserve funding is not being passed as a shock assessment in late 2026.

Full Disclosure: Data aggregation for informational purposes only. Not financial or real estate advice.

$399,000 — 1356 Centre Court Ridge Dr #204, Reunion, FL 34747

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3 BR | 3 BA | 1,686 SqFt | $237 | Condominium

The Investor Summary

Fully furnished turnkey condo featuring an active Reunion Club Membership, which is a critical utility for guest access to resort-exclusive water parks and golf courses. The unit is a corner "end unit" with exterior storage and West-facing golf views, specifically optimized for high-ADR short-term rental use.

Forensic Market Data: Reunion/34747

February 2026. The Citrus Ridge/Reunion area is currently a Buyer’s Market characterized by high inventory levels and low competition. Average homes are selling at 4% below list price with a median time on market of 83 days, granting investors significant negotiating leverage.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Sales History & Investor Signals

• Last Sale Delta: Acquired $383,000 in Aug 2024. Current ask represents a $16,000 (4.1%) total appreciation over 18 months.

• Annualized Growth: 2.7% per year. (Benchmark: 4-6% for this ZIP).

• Price Velocity: 32 Days on Market. Currently listed $14K above the Redfin Estimate, though priced competitively compared to 2024 exit attempts.

• Investor Signal: Aspirational exit attempt. The seller is attempting to capture a premium for the "Active Membership" and "Turnkey" status in a market where inventory is currently high.

Price Exposure & Structural Audit

• Linguistic Tells: "Active Reunion Club Membership," "Turnkey," "Revenue generating investment," "Corner unit," "Exterior storage."

• Actuarial Risk: Roof: 4 Years (Replaced 2022) / HVAC: Undisclosed (Original 2006?). HARD STOP alert triggered on HVAC and water heater systems if original, as they exceed the 15-year actuarial cliff.

• Legislative Audit: CDD fees are present ($1,800/yr). SIRS (Structural Integrity Reserve Study) compliance for Florida condos should be verified to ensure no pending special assessments for this three-story structure.

Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 96% (ZIP Average).

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • Feb 2026 | $315,000 ($148/PSF) | 7514 Seven Eagles Way (Larger unit, lower finish)

  • Nov 2025 | $415,000 ($252/PSF) | 7593 Gathering Dr #509

  • Apr 2025 | $420,000 ($249/PSF) | 1354 Centre Court Ridge Dr #101 (Direct Comp)

Critical Due-Diligence Questions

1. Can the seller provide the 4-Point Inspection or proof of HVAC replacement since 2011 to avoid insurance non-renewal?

2. Does the current "Active Membership" transfer seamlessly to the buyer, and what is the current transfer fee?

3. What is the documented 12-month trailing gross revenue for this specific unit within the current rental program?

Underwriting Logic Summary

The $237 PPSF is currently aligned with the neighborhood ceiling for 3-bedroom units, though the recent tax reset estimate ($7,381) creates a higher-than-expected opex floor. While the "Active Membership" and corner-unit light justify a slight premium over base condos, the aging 2006 internal infrastructure creates significant actuarial risk for 2026 insurance carriers. Recommend an offer at $375,000 to offset the inevitable $10k-$15k mechanical capex required within 24 months.

Full Disclosure: Data aggregation for informational purposes only. Not financial or real estate advice.

$1,000,000 — 1424 Titian Ct, Reunion, FL 34747

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5 BR | 5 BA | 3,522 SqFt | $284 | Single Family Residence

The Investor Summary

Forensic Market Data: Reunion/34747

February 2026. Citrus Ridge is currently a definitive buyer's market characterized by high inventory saturation and low competition. Average properties are moving at a 4% discount to list price with a median duration of 83 days on market.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Note: Property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate models the removal of the "Save Our Homes" cap using a 1.85% market value multiplier. Data Sources: Stellar MLS, Tax Records, 2026 Statutory Reset Projections.

Sales History & Investor Signals

• Last Sale Delta: Acquired $510,000 in 2019. Current ask represents a $490,000 (96%) total appreciation.

• Annualized Growth: 14.1% per year. (Benchmark: 4-6% for this ZIP).

• Price Velocity: 4 Days on Market. Previous 2018 cycle showed a 340-day hold before a 15% price reduction triggered the sale.

• Investor Signal: Speculative Exit Attempt. Seller is chasing a premium based on "thematic value" that exceeds the neighborhood PPSF floor by over 15%, ignoring current 34747 inventory expansion.

Price Exposure & Structural Audit

• Linguistic Tells: "Professionally themed," "Income-producing," "In-law suite," "Zoned for STR."

• Actuarial Risk: 19 Years (Roof) / 19 Years (HVAC). HARD STOP: Both primary systems have exceeded the 15-year actuarial threshold. Mandatory replacement likely required to secure 2026 standard-line insurance.

• Legislative Audit: SFH status; subject to a $2,504 annual CDD fee. No lease restrictions (Zoned STR).

Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 96% (ZIP Average).

• Verified Sold Comps: * 7608 Excitement Dr | Dec 2025 | $920,000 ($243/PPSF)

  • 7605 Excitement Dr | Dec 2025 | $795,000 ($236/PPSF)

  • 7502 Gathering Dr | Jan 2026 | $1,089,000 ($352/PPSF - Newer Build)

Critical Due-Diligence Questions

1. Has a 2026 Wind Mitigation report been filed to maintain the insurability of the 2007 metal roof?

2. Does the trailing 12-month P&L justify the $40/PPSF premium over standard neighborhood comps?

3. Is the detached in-law suite metered separately or bundled into the main house operational carry?

Underwriting Logic Summary

The asset carries a heavy "Theming Premium" ($284/PPSF vs. $240 neighborhood average) that relies on specific ADR performance from the detached suite. However, the forensic risk of 19-year-old infrastructure and a $6,000+ annual tax hike post-reset threatens to erode the CoC return. Institutional buyers should underwrite for a $35k-$50k immediate CapEx reserve for system lifecycles.

Full Disclosure: Data aggregation for informational purposes only. Not financial or real estate advice.

$750,000 — 7523 Excitement Dr, Reunion, FL 34747

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5 BR | 6 BA | 3,020 SqFt | $248 | Single Family Residence

The Investor Summary

High-utility courtyard-style STR "destination home" featuring a detached guest apartment and professional high-end theming (Star Wars, Harry Potter, Disney). This turn-key asset includes a transferable Club Membership, a critical value-add for Reunion Resort guest access to premium golf and water park amenities.

Forensic Market Data: Reunion / 34747

February 2026. The Citrus Ridge/Reunion market is currently a Buyer’s Market characterized by a 4.1-month supply of inventory and an average of 89 days on market. High inventory levels in the resort corridor are forcing significant price corrections, with approximately 22% of listings seeing recent price drops as sellers position for the spring season.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Sales History & Investor Signals

• Last Sale Delta: Acquired $800,000 in May 2023. Current ask represents a -$50,000 (-6.25%) nominal value loss.

• Annualized Growth: -2.2% per year (Benchmark: 4-6% for 34747). This indicates a significant correction from the 2022/2023 market peak.

• Price Velocity: 12 days on market (New List). Previous listing attempt at $875k failed in late 2025; the current $750k price reflects an aggressive 14% discount from the initial 2024 ask.

• Investor Signal: Distressed Equity Exit. The seller is pricing $50k below their 2023 purchase price to trigger a fast sale in a high-inventory environment, creating a potential equity floor for the incoming buyer.

Price Exposure & Structural Audit

• Linguistic Tells: "Professionally Themed," "Detached Apartment," "Turn-key," "Club Membership," "Heated Pool."

• Actuarial Risk: Roof: 2024 (New) | HVAC: 2024 (New). These recent updates mitigate the 15-year actuarial cliff, ensuring insurance eligibility in 2026's strict carrier market.

• Legislative Audit: Reunion Resort (OPUD Zoning): Zoned for STR. Club membership is active but requires verification of transfer fees. No CDD fees reported; HOA includes cable, internet, and security.

Verified Market Benchmarks

• Sale-to-List Ratio: 96.3% (Reunion Average).

• Verified Sold Comps:

  • 7605 Excitement Dr | Dec 1, 2025 | $795,000 | $236/PSF

  • 7608 Excitement Dr | Dec 4, 2025 | $920,000 | $243/PSF

  • 7524 Gathering Dr | Feb 12, 2026 | $582,000 | $222/PSF

Critical Due-Diligence Questions

1. Membership Transfer: Does the current Club Membership transfer via a simple administrative fee, or is a new initiation deposit required for the buyer to maintain guest access?

2. Revenue Performance: Given the $180k+ top-line potential for themed 5BRs in Reunion, can the seller provide the actual 2024-2025 P&L to justify the "high-performing" claim?

3. Appraisal Gap: With the market correcting and the seller taking a loss, will the property appraise at $750k given the $222-$236/PSF recent comps on the same street?

Underwriting Logic Summary

The asset is priced at $248/PSF, a slight premium over the neighborhood floor of ~$225/PSF, but justified by the 2024 roof/HVAC upgrades and professional "high-occupancy" theming. The tax reset to ~$1,150/mo is a significant jump from current capped bills and must be modeled into the yield. This is a high-utility entry for an investor seeking a "destination" STR, as the detached apartment provides a unique rental configuration that typically commands a higher ADR than standard 5BR layouts.

Full Disclosure: Data aggregation for informational purposes only. Not financial or real estate advice.

STR Scout: Agentic Forensic Audit

• Inventory Fatigue Signal: 143.5 Days

• Appreciation Since 2019: +50.2%

Forensic Assessment: The current market displays a significant fatigue pocket with a median days-on-market of 143.5 days, indicating mounting pressure on sellers. The following 10 assets represent the highest carry-cost pressure in the market, with some properties sitting for over a year, creating prime opportunities for motivated negotiations.