PCB Fatigue Audit: 5 STR Deals With Strong Motivation Signals

STR Scout Members —

The Big Picture: We’ve moved from the mountains of Tennessee to the "Emerald Coast," and the data tells a starkly different story. In Panama City Beach, the "softening" we discussed last week has matured into a full-blown buyer’s market.

The Problem: Inventory in Panama City Beach,, FL (PCB) has surged to over 1,800 active listings, and the absorption rate is hovering around 10 months. For the untrained eye, it looks like a slump. For us, it’s a high-leverage hunting ground.

Our Role: With an average of 133 days on market, the "listing noise" in PCB is deafening. Sellers are sitting on equity they can’t unlock, and many are pricing based on 2024 dreams rather than 2026 reality.

As your Investor Advocate, I’m looking for the "bruise”. The listings with stale DOM and high HOA/Insurance carry costs, multiple price reductions, the deals that make sellers motivated to move.

The Focus: In PCB, the forensic audit shifts to carrying costs. We’re looking past the Gulf views to find the impact of rising insurance premiums and special assessments that are compressing yields for the "average" investor. We want to help you find value.

In this issue: A deep-dive forensic audit of Panama City Beach, FL.

• Motivation Check: Identifying the 40% of listings with significant price velocity drops.

• The Forensic Gap: Reconciling "Guest Capacity" claims (listings often claim 8+ guests) with actual fire marshal and tax records.

• The Alpha: Why the "30A overflow" guest is changing the amenity requirements for PCB rentals.

Happy scouting,

Andy T. Founder, STR Scout

Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide

• Buy-Side Reality: Panama City Beach has matured into a definitive Buyer’s Market with an absorption rate of 10.24 months, granting investors significant leverage for concessions.

• Supply vs. Saturation: Inventory has surged to over 1,800 active listings, while the STR market is experiencing hyper-saturation in commoditized 1 and 2-bedroom condos.

• The Valuation Math: With the average property sitting for 133 days on market, sellers are increasingly forced to accept offers averaging 9% below list price to exit high-carry assets.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory

Market Pulse: STR Performance

Sourcing: Data synthesized from AirROI (STR Performance), Realtor/MLS (Inventory Metrics).

Asset Analysis: 5 High-Motivation Deals

• The Big Picture: The focus has shifted from appreciation to carrying-cost triage, targeting sellers burdened by rising insurance and HOA assessments.

• The "Motivation" Hook: These 5 deals target assets that have surpassed the 100-day fatigue threshold, where the "Expertise Gap" allows for creative entry.

• Operational Moats: Alpha is currently found in 8+ guest capacity properties, which dominate the high-revenue segment and resist condo-market saturation.

Consultative Negotiation

• The Carrying Cost Audit: "With the market average at 133 days, how is the seller justifying the list price against the compounding insurance and HOA carry costs?"

• The Inventory Pressure: "Given the surge to 1,808 active listings, is the seller ready to price for 2026 reality or continue holding for 2024 dreams?"

• The Equity Unlock: "Since sold prices are trending 9% below list, what is the minimum 'walk-away' number that makes sense for the seller to exit today?"

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🔎 STR Scout First Pass: 17614 Front Beach Rd Unit D6, $239,900 (Condo)

The Big Picture

Jan 2026. As Florida’s "Special Assessment" wave plateaus, PCB west-end units like this are surfacing as high-yield leftovers for cash-heavy buyers. At $397/SF, this entry-level asset sits significantly below the 2022-2023 frenzy peaks, offering a defensive "buy the dip" entry for STR yield seekers.

The Signals

• True Market Exposure: While Redfin shows "4 days," this unit has been a frequent flier. It was listed in early 2024 for $294,500 and failed to move, ultimately being withdrawn.

• Price Retracement: The current $239,900 ask represents an 18.5% haircut from the 2024 initial ask and a $32,600 loss (approx. 12%) from its April 2023 purchase price of $272,500.

• Motivation: The seller is likely feeling the "CapEx Squeeze" or seeking to exit ahead of further Florida insurance adjustments.

The Appreciation Narrative

• PPSF Analysis: At $397/SF, this is a clear retracement. The complex saw units trade for $480+/SF during the 2022 peak.

• Market Context: You are buying at 2021 price levels while capturing 2025-level rents ($26,000 gross). This suggests a floor is forming, though "appreciation" will be a slow crawl driven by inflation rather than speculation.

The Forensic Check

• The "Turnkey" Audit: Claims of "Turnkey" often hide 1986-original bones. The listing shows stucco/wood trim—critical failure points in Florida's humid salt air.

• Major Systems: The 1986 build date screams "Check the HVAC and Water Heater." If they aren't post-2020, budget $8k-$12k for immediate replacement to keep insurance premiums viable.

• HOA Red Flag: Total monthly carry includes a $1,375 quarterly assessment ($458/mo). Verify if this is a temporary "catch-up" for reserves or the new permanent floor for PCB condos under Florida's new structural integrity laws.

The Pressure Test

1. Reserve Status: "Has the 2025 SIRS (Structural Integrity Reserve Study) been completed, and what is the current funding percentage?"

2. Assessment Timeline: "The $1,375 quarterly assessment—is there an expiration date, or is this the permanent adjusted rate for 2026?"

3. HVAC/Roof: "What is the specific age of the condenser? Since the unit is 1st floor, has there been any history of drainage or 'stucco-leak' issues from the unit above (D13/D14)?"

4. Rent Verification: "Can you provide the 2025 P&L to verify the $26k revenue? Does that include cleaning fees and taxes or is it 'net-to-owner'?"

Initial Thesis: 🟡

The price-to-rent ratio is attractive, but the owner's exit at a $32k loss after only 33 months suggests the "passive" income is being eaten by rising HOA/Insurance costs. This is a yield play, not a capital gains play—buy it for the cash flow, but only if you can negotiate a credit for the aging mechanicals.

View Redfin Listing

🔎 STR Scout First Pass: 17729 Front Beach Rd Unit 2101E, $865,000 (Condo)

The Big Picture

Jan 2026. As the Florida condo market faces a "great decoupling" between distressed legacy units and high-performance "destination" resorts, Splash remains a premium outlier. This penthouse is currently undergoing a controlled descent in pricing to find the floor in a buyer-heavy market.

The Signals

• True Market Exposure: The "102 days on MLS" is deceptive. The price history reveals a hyper-aggressive cutting strategy—over 20 price drops since June 2025. This is a classic "chasing the market" scenario.

• Price Retracement: Listed at $950k in June, now at $865k—a 9% reduction. More critically, the owner bought this in Nov 2023 for $810,000. They are currently holding onto just $55k of "paper gain" before commissions and closing costs, signaling they are at the "break-even" exit point.

• Motivation: "Motivated Seller & Priced To Sell Quickly" isn't fluff here; the sheer frequency of price adjustments (sometimes weekly) indicates high carrying-cost pressure.

The Appreciation Narrative

• PPSF Analysis: At $508/SF, this unit is priced defensively. During the 2005-2006 peak, this exact unit sold for $750,000 ($441/SF). Adjusting for 20 years of inflation, the real value has actually contracted.

• The Penthouse Premium: As a corner unit with "Gulf views from every bedroom," it holds a scarcity value that lower-floor, mid-stack units lack.

The Forensic Check

• The "Turnkey" Audit: Splash is a 2006 build. While the listing says "fully-furnished," the photos must be checked for original cabinetry and appliances. 20-year-old resort infrastructure is a Capex time bomb.

• HOA Red Flag: The listing notes a $2,277 quarterly assessment ($759/mo) in addition to the regular dues. Total monthly carry is effectively $1,518 when including the "Assessment Amount."

• The $100k Claim: A $100k projection on an $865k buy is a 11.5% Gross Yield. This is top-tier for PCB, but requires "Penthouse" pricing on every booking.

The Pressure Test

1. Assessment Clarity: "The $9,110 annual assessment ($2,277 quarterly)—is this for a specific structural project (SIRS compliance) and does it have a sunset date?"

2. Rental Integrity: "You mentioned projections of $90k-$100k for 2026. Can you provide the actual 1099 or owner statements for 2024 and 2025 to prove the building's current velocity?"

3. HVAC/Systems: "On the 21st floor, HVAC systems work overtime. What is the manufacture date on the current unit, and has the water heater been updated to meet current high-rise insurance codes?"

4. Pending Litigation: "Are there any active lawsuits against the HOA or Sterling Resort management regarding the water park or common areas?"

Initial Thesis: 🟢

The seller is clearly exhausted and has priced this near their 2023 acquisition cost. If the $90k+ rental income is verifiable, this is one of the few PCB assets currently trading at a sub-10x multiple of gross rent. Buy the view, but negotiate the assessment credit.

View Realtor.com Listing

🔎 STR Scout First Pass: 17462 Front Beach Rd #58206, $315,000 (Condo)

The Big Picture

Jan 2026. As PCB buyers flee the "High-Rise Assessment Trap," low-density horizontal complexes like Horizon South are becoming the primary target for entry-level STR investors. At $333/SF, this unit is priced for a high-velocity exit, positioning itself as the "cheapest 2BR+" currently available in a gated, amenity-rich community.

The Signals

• True Market Exposure: The "68 days" on market masks a strategic relisting on Jan 15, 2026. The seller is actively hunting for a buyer before the spring break rush.

• Price Retracement: This unit sold for $325,000 in July 2024. The current $315,000 ask is a rare move below the previous year's acquisition price, indicating the seller is likely over-leveraged or facing capital calls elsewhere.

• Volume Signal: Horizon South is seeing high churn; this unit is intentionally undercut to beat out similar 2BR units sitting in the $340k range.

The Appreciation Narrative

• PPSF Analysis: At $333/SF, you are effectively buying back into 2021 pricing. While Gulf-front towers are seeing $550/SF, this "across the street" asset offers a safer floor for a long-term hold.

• The "Bunk" Alpha: This is a 2BR+Bunk configuration. In the STR world, this allows the unit to sleep 6-8, matching the revenue potential of many 3BR units while maintaining a 2BR tax and insurance profile.

The Forensic Check

• The HOA "Zero" Glitch: Redfin shows $0 HOA dues—this is a data error. Actual monthly dues in Horizon South for 2026 are trending between $450–$550/mo. You must verify the specific "Beach" vs. "Island" collection fee schedule.

• The Structural Pass: Because this is a low-rise (2 stories), it is largely exempt from the most aggressive Florida SIRS mandates (which target 3+ stories). This makes it significantly easier to finance with conventional loans compared to the neighboring high-rises.

• The "Big Bird" Note: The listing highlights a specific decor theme. While quirky, budget $5k for a "de-theming" refresh to maximize 2026 booking appeal to a broader audience.

The Pressure Test

1. HOA Reality Check: "The listing shows $0 HOA dues. What is the actual 2026 monthly assessment, and does it include the master insurance policy or is that billed separately?"

2. Special Assessments: "Is there a current or pending assessment for the upcoming 2026 amenity refresh (pools/tennis courts) or the Front Beach Road CRA project?"

3. Rental Performance: "The unit is marketed as 'rental ready.' Can you provide the actual 2025 gross revenue? (Expect ~$32k-$38k for this floor plan)."

4. Furniture Exclusions: "The listing notes the 'Big Bird' theme—are there any other specific furniture exclusions besides the large clock above the TV?"

Initial Thesis: 🟢

This is a pure "Price-to-Value" play. By pricing below the 2024 sale price, the seller has removed the "FL Condo Risk" premium. For an investor looking for a sub-$350k entry point that avoids the structural assessment nightmare of the high-rises, this is the strongest candidate in PCB West.

View Redfin Listing

🔎 STR Scout First Pass: Origins at Seahaven Penthouse | 15100 Front Beach Rd #1701, $789,000 (Condo)

The Big Picture

Jan 2026. The Panama City Beach (PCB) market has entered a definitive "normalization" phase with 10+ months of inventory, granting buyers maximum leverage as sellers face a 16% market-wide retracement from 2024 peaks. This penthouse unit represents a desperate attempt to capture 2021-era pricing in a high-supply environment where "motivated" is no longer just a buzzword—it’s a necessity.

The Signals

• True Market Exposure: 114 days on Redfin. In a market where the average "pending" occurs at 100 days, this unit is officially "stale bread."

• The Discount Trail: Originally listed at $875,000 in Oct 2025; now at $789,000.

• Total Discount: 9.8% from original ask.

• Historical Red Flag: This exact unit failed to sell in late 2022 after being listed for $1,099,000. The current ask is a 28% capitulation from that 2022 peak attempt.

The Appreciation Narrative

• PPSF Analysis: Currently $402/sq ft. This is a significant retracement from the $560/sq ft sought in 2022.

• The Floor: The property sold for $360,000 ($183/sq ft) in 2020. While "renovated," the current pricing still carries a 119% premium over its pre-boom basis. With PCB market-wide inventory up 500% YoY, this PPSF is under heavy downward pressure.

The Forensic Check

• "Turnkey" Claim: Listing claims "Newly furnished" and "Full recent renovation." However, as the owner is a licensed agent, the "renovation" may be cosmetic (paint/FF&E) rather than mechanical.

• System Age: Building completed in 2007. Major systems (HVAC/Water Heater) are likely nearing the end of their 15–20 year lifecycle if original.

• SIRS Compliance: Florida's 2025/2026 Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) mandates are in full effect. The listing is silent on whether full funding is reflected in the current HOA or if a special assessment is looming.

The Pressure Test

1. SIRS & Reserves: Has the building completed its Structural Integrity Reserve Study, and what is the current deficit in the reserve funding for the 2026 budget?

2. Special Assessments: Are there any planned assessments for 2026 (common in PCB for exterior painting/waterproofing) that are not disclosed in the listing?

3. Real Income: You claim "Great ROI"—can you provide the 2024 and 2025 actual 1099s or management portal reports?

4. The "Motivation": With 114 days on market and a licensed agent-owner, what specific closing date or price floor is required to end the carry cost immediately?

Initial Thesis 🟡 

The 270-degree penthouse views and 1,963 sq ft footprint are unique, but the "motivated" seller is still chasing a price point roughly 10-15% above the 2026 "fair value" for non-beachfront (across the street) assets. The lack of HOA transparency in the data provided is a critical risk factor.

View Redfin Listing

🔎 STR Scout First Pass: Coastal Luxury Beachfront | 12401 Front Beach Rd, Panama City Beach, FL Price: $3,999,999 | Asset Type: Single-Family STR (6BR/8BA)

The Big Picture

Jan 2026. The Panama City Beach (PCB) market is currently a buyer’s stronghold with high inventory levels and a 6.5% YOY decrease in average rental rates, forcing luxury sellers into aggressive price discovery. This asset is a "post-peak" play where the seller is chasing the market down, having failed to exit at the $4.5M+ level during the 2023-2024 plateau.

The Signals

• Days on Market (DOM): 288 days on Redfin (Current Listing) + previous failed cycles = 400+ days of True Market Exposure.

• Price History Forensic: Originally listed at $5.25M in April 2022. Sold for $4.5M in June 2023. Now asking $3,999,999.

• Total Discount: This is a 23.8% drop from the initial 2022 ask and an 11.1% loss from the owner’s 2023 purchase price (excluding closing costs and carry).

• Motivation: High. The seller is currently "underwater" relative to their 2023 acquisition, signaling a potential distressed exit or a 1031 exchange pressure.

The Appreciation Narrative

• PPSF Analysis: At $1,023/sq ft, this is significantly higher than the PCB average of ~$625/sq ft, though typical for direct beachfront. However, with new construction comps (like Oleander Dr) sitting at similar price points, the "2022 build" is already losing its "new car smell" premium.

• Trend: This is a clear retracement. The asset is being repriced to find the 2026 floor in a market where 8+ guest capacity listings now make up 41.5% of the inventory.

The Forensic Check

• "Turnkey" Claim: The listing highlights a "dedicated lawn game area" and elevator. Risk Flag: Small 0.22-acre lot. Foot pool and mini-golf on a beachfront lot often mean high maintenance costs due to salt spray degradation on "turf" and equipment.

• Systems Audit: 2022 build means HVAC and roof are in the "mid-infancy" stage, but PCB salt air accelerates the lifecycle of exterior condensers. Budget for a full HVAC coil replacement by 2027-2028.

• Occupancy Math: Advertised for 16 guests. Per PCB Ordinance 1632, occupancy is capped at 1 person per 150 sq. ft. of habitable space. At 3,910 sq. ft., the legal max is 26 guests, meaning the current 16-guest setup is under-utilizing the footprint—or the "habitable" vs. "total" square footage needs a strict audit.

The Pressure Test

1. The "Exit" Question: "The seller bought this for $4.5M in mid-2023 and is now listing for $4M. Beyond 'motivation,' is there a specific debt maturity or capital call driving this $500k+ loss-leader pricing?"

2. The Revenue Reality: "Can you provide the actual 2024 and 2025 P&L statements? With PCB rental rates down 6.5% this year, how has this specific property’s ADR held up against the new Margaritaville Beach Villa comps?"

3. The Permit Status: "Is the Vacation Rental Certificate (Ordinance 1632) current, and has the property passed its 2026 fire inspection? Any active noise or trash citations on record with the City?"

Initial Thesis 🟡 

The price is finally approaching "fair value" for a 2026 beachfront asset, but the seller is clearly catching a falling knife. While the $1M+ reduction from the 2022 peak looks attractive, the 2023 purchase price of $4.5M serves as a psychological anchor that may make the seller resistant to the further 5-10% haircut likely required to close in this buyer's market.

View Redfin Listing

The Bottom Line

We deliver the forensics. You execute, you keep the equity.

This is intelligence, not investment advice. Do your diligence.

Happy scouting,

Andy T.

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