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šŸ”„ STR Bulls vs. Bears: Is the STR Housing Market Quietly Crashing?

Midweek Moves: 21 STR Deals, trending news and housing market insights

šŸ—“ļø Wednesday Edition Ā· Midweek Moves

Price cuts, shifting regulation, and 21 new deals—here’s what smart STR investors are watching right now.

In This Issue:

  • šŸ” STR Bulls vs. Bears: Who’s winning the fight about an STR housing crash—and what signs to watch for in your market

  • šŸ”„ STR Classifieds: Fresh price cuts, and high-yield potential STRs—organized by region for smarter, faster scouting.

  • šŸ“° STR News Nuggets: Major headlines—from Florida housing cracks, Airbnb bear case surfaces, home listing flood, and price slashing.

Let’s dive in šŸ‘‡

—The STR Scout Team

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šŸ  This Week’s STR Pro Classifieds

šŸ– Beach

šŸ”¹ View Details $220k – Niceville, FL
Ground-floor 1BR condo earns $30–33K NET. Fully furnished, lakefront patio, STR-ready. Minutes to Destin beaches.

šŸ”¹ View Details $349k – Melbourne Beach, FL
Off-market 2BR/2BA Airbnb w/garage. Priced $100K under appraisal. Fully furnished + rental history.

šŸ”¹ View Details $539k – Destin, FL
Booked for summer! 2BR/2BA Gulf-view condo in Grand Caribbean East. Furnished + strong rental history.

šŸ”¹ View Details $799k – Perdido Key, FL
3BR/3BA turnkey condo in Palacio. Gulf-front, pool, gym, tennis. Fully furnished w/resort amenities.

šŸ”¹ View Details $880k – Crystal Beach, TX
Custom home w/beach view, $85K+ gross income. Hot tub add = winter boost. Owner stepping out of STR.

šŸ”¹ View Details $950k – Marco Island, FL
Turnkey 3BR/2BA w/pool. Grossed $110K (2023), $113K (2024). Updated, no HOA, 95 5-star reviews.

šŸ”¹ View Details $1.05M – Fort Pierce, FL
3BR STR w/private beach access. $130K gross, $102K already booked for 2025. Fully furnished, remodeled.

šŸ” Mountain

šŸ”¹ View Details $450k – Pigeon Forge, TN
Turnkey 1BR w/loft, $54K YTD. Hot tub, game room, 4.9ā˜… rating. 2 miles to Parkway.

šŸ”¹ View Details $514k – Gatlinburg, TN
2BR cabin w/private sauna, $56K in 2024. Renovated, mountain views, near downtown.

šŸ”¹ View Details $589k – Sevierville, TN
STR-ready 2BR cabin w/game loft, hot tub, 2 decks. Near Gatlinburg Arts District.

šŸ”¹ View Details $650k – Sevierville, TN
Price drop! 4BR/3BA w/$112K 2024 gross. 2,664 sqft, 3 decks, hot tub, game room.

šŸ”¹ View Details $720k – Sevierville, TN
$30K price cut! Convert to 4BR, $83–107K potential income. Hot tub, arcade, turnkey.

šŸ”¹ View Details $850k – Sevierville, TN
High-performer w/$117K gross. 4BR/3.5BA, 4.9ā˜… rating, Smoky Cove Resort. Seller financing at 6.9%.

šŸž Lake

šŸ”¹ View Details $325k – Tracy City, TN
Lakefront STR in gated tiny home community. Approved for Airbnb. 45 min to Chattanooga.

šŸ”¹ View Details $435k – Spring City, TN
Lakefront 3BR/2BA STR. Fully renovated, dock, hot tub, bonus cabin for expansion. $394/sqft.

šŸŒ† Urban

šŸ”¹ View Details $489.9k – Hermitage, TN
NOOSTR-approved 4BR/3BA condo. $32K gross in 6 months. Fully furnished, near airport & downtown Nashville.

šŸ”¹ View Details $549.9k – Woodway, TX
STR with guest house + space for tiny home. Separate meters, 2.42 acres, Airbnb income stream in place.

šŸ”¹ View Details $820k – Hollywood, FL
Mid-century 4BR/3BA STR-ready home. Pool, pizza oven, sleeps 10. High-end remodel, no HOA.

šŸ˜ Multi-Unit

šŸ”¹ View Details $1.5M – Hocking Hills, OH
5 STR cabins on 12.6 acres grossing $200K in 2024. Room to grow + 2 mo mgmt included.

šŸ”¹ View Details $1.55M – Sevierville, TN
3 fully renovated STR cabins, $254K gross in 2024. Creative financing: no money down option!

šŸŒ International

šŸ”¹ View Details $1.3M – Atenas, Costa Rica
4 oceanview STR villas w/infinity pool on 5.1 acres. 100+ nights booked. Expandable site.

šŸ”“ Go Pro today for full access and never miss a deal!

Skim curated headlines shaping Airbnb, STR investing, housing, and travel—spot the signals driving the market now.

1. Maui Council Weighs Vacation Rental Phase-Out
Maui’s Council is debating Bill 9, which would phase out nearly 7,000 short-term rentals in apartment-zoned areas to combat housing shortages. Critics warn of massive losses in visitor spending and thousands of jobs by 2029. STR hosts on Maui face significant regulatory risks and potential income disruption. Read more

2. Airbnb Bear Case Surfaces as Shares Slide
A bearish thesis on Airbnb cites slowing demand and growing competition, as shares hover around $137. Analysts warn these headwinds could compress revenue growth and profitability. STR investors should reassess risk tolerance and prepare for market turbulence. Read more

3. Portugal Mulls Golden Visa Enhancements for Investors
Portugal may revamp its Golden Visa program to attract global real estate and STR investors. Proposed perks include extended stays, tax incentives, and faster residency processing. These changes could spark a new wave of overseas STR investment in Portugal. Read more

4. Florida Housing Market Turning Down Fast
Florida’s housing market is deteriorating quickly, with active listings rising sharply in areas like Miami-Dade. Slowing buyer demand is exerting downward pressure on prices. STR operators may find new acquisition opportunities amid the price correction. Read more

5. Housing Supply Surge Deepens Market Weakness
Housing inventory is spiking across major U.S. metros, including California, hitting multi-year highs. Higher mortgage rates and tepid demand are keeping properties on the market longer. STR investors might capitalize on this buyer-friendly environment to expand or reposition. Read more

6. Home Listings Flood Market Ahead of Summer
Realtor.com reports a surge in summer listings, suggesting a pivot to a buyer’s market. Rising inventory is shifting the leverage to buyers, potentially softening seasonal pricing. STR operators should stay alert for discounts from motivated sellers. Read more

7. South Florida Listings Nearly Double as Residents Exit
South Florida’s home listings have nearly doubled, driven by resident exits from coastal and urban hubs. The spike is putting pressure on prices in what were once hot markets. STR stakeholders should reassess pricing and inventory strategies in the region. Read more

8. House Values Declines Spark National Alarm
Home values are slipping in several regions, raising concerns about broader housing market instability. Newsweek reports that investor caution is rising amid these shifts. STR owners should re-evaluate valuations and exit strategies in affected areas. Read more

9. Americans Cutting Asking Prices on Homes
Homeowners are aggressively lowering prices to attract offers amid cooling demand. This trend could influence rental comps and STR pricing in parallel markets. Hosts may need to recalibrate nightly rates based on local signals. Read more

10. Job Market Showing Cracks, Economist Warns
New data suggests emerging weaknesses in the U.S. labor market, including slower hiring and economic softening. A cooling job landscape could dampen discretionary travel. STR operators should anticipate potential dips in occupancy and booking frequency. Read more

• Tariffs on imported goods could push inflation higher, raising STR operating costs across maintenance, utilities, and supplies
• JPMorgan says economic slowdown is seeping in despite strong job data
• Investors are increasingly targeting Latin America as U.S. market pressures mount
• Millions of Americans have seen their credit scores plunge, threatening travel demand
• Epic pass sales are down at Vail, hinting at ski travel softness and STR demand shifts
• Housing inventory is catching up fast in 75 U.S. metros, normalizing post-pandemic trends
• Houston’s new Lagoon surf park is generating tourism buzz and potential STR demand
• Tampa tops Kayak’s trending U.S. summer destination list, boosting STR interest
• Swimply is becoming popular among Airbnb guests for private pool rentals
• Airbnb hosts are pushing back against new fees and policies seen as unfair

šŸ  STR Bulls vs. Bears: Is the STR Housing Market Quietly Crashing?

The U.S. housing market isn’t in freefall—yet. But it’s also not rising. Beneath the national averages lies a fractured market: locked-in homeowners holding tight, Airbnb sellers flooding the market, and buyers evaporating in once-hot metros.

Let’s break down the bull and bear cases, zoom in on local reversals, and spotlight what could push this from a stall into a crash.

šŸ”’ This article is part of our exclusive STR Scout Pro content. Join now to unlock future reports, insights, and member-only intelligence.

🟢 Bull Case: Why Housing Might Hold

  • Inventory is still tight
    National supply sits around 3.5 months—well below the 6-month threshold that signals balance.

  • Locked-in mortgage rates
    Over 70% of U.S. mortgages are under 5%. Few are trading 3% loans for 7% ones.

  • Low foreclosure risk
    Homeowners have equity. No subprime wave. No ARM disaster.

  • Strong employment
    Unemployment below 4.5% keeps delinquencies low—for now.

šŸ”“ Bear Case: Cracks Are Spreading Below the Surface

  • Affordability is crushed

    Monthly mortgage payments eat up 36%+ of median income in many metros.

  • Listings are rising
    1M+ active homes. Time on market? 51 days and climbing.

  • Price cuts escalating
    1 in 5 listings saw price reductions—the highest since 2016.

  • STR saturation
    Example: In Galveston, TX, inventory hit 17 months. Airbnb owners are offloading.

  • Vanishing buyers
    Mortgage applications are near record lows. Buyers are sidelined.

  • Structural stress
    AI job shifts + tariffs + credit card debt = pressure cooker.

šŸ“‰ Local Price Reversals: Already in Motion

These aren’t slow burns—they’re reversals. Local, visible, and accelerating.

āš ļø What Could Accelerate a Crash?

  1. Forced STR Listings
    STR owners under pressure (insurance hikes, DSCR resets) start dumping.
    āœ… Watch: Months-of-supply above 6+ in STR-heavy zip codes.

  2. Buyers Disappear
    Mortgage apps fall, rates stay high, and investors exit.
    āœ… Watch: Listings over 60 DOM with few/no offers.

  3. STR Regulation Backlash
    Permit bans or tax shifts instantly break unit economics.
    āœ… Watch: Facebook groups, STR forums, city council activity.

  4. AI Job Loss + WFH Reversals
    White-collar layoffs hit remote work metros.
    āœ… Watch: Local tech layoffs, hybrid mandates.

  5. Credit Tightening
    Delinquencies up, credit scores rising, banks pulling back.
    āœ… Watch: Rejected pre-approvals, HELOC suspensions.

  6. Tariffs or Fed Missteps
    Inflation + policy = market panic.
    āœ… Watch: Construction pauses, rate swings, geopolitics.

šŸ“Š Bull vs. Bear Snapshot

Signal

Bull Spin

Bear Read

Inventory

Still tight overall

Exploding in STR zones

Rates

Locked-in sellers won’t list

No discovery = frozen market

Prices

Up ~2% YoY

Falling in 80+ metros

Demand

Buyers waiting on Fed

Applications near historic lows

STRs

Localized only

Oversupplied + cash flow negative

Jobs

Low unemployment

Flat wages + AI disruption

🧠 Editor’s Take

This isn’t 2008. But it’s not 2019 either. It’s a slow-motion crash—one ZIP code at a time.

If you’re in:

  • A saturated Airbnb market

  • A tax-heavy Sun Belt boomtown

  • Or a remote-work speculative hub

Expect real pressure ahead.

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