STR SCOUT · PIED-À-TERRE INTELLIGENCE · 2026

The Quiet Pivot

Why experienced investors are moving capital offshore in 2026 and what they're buying

The Weight Is Real

There's a term for what a lot of us are carrying right now: market cycle fatigue.

It's not panic. It's not failure. It's just heavy.

I know operators who bought smart, ran tight numbers, and are still watching the math erode. The mountain studio that was $350K in 2019 is asking $700K today. The income didn't double. The tax bill reset at the new basis. Insurance repriced, if you could get it. The handyman charges twice what he did three years ago.

Nothing dramatic happened. Everything just got more expensive at once and the cushion disappeared.

So we adapt. We shift to MTR. We reprice, reposition, reinvent. We work harder for returns that keep getting thinner.

At some point the honest question becomes: what are we actually building toward?

The Hopium Reset

Success in 2026 looks different. It's forensic. Sharper pencil, deeper intel, ruthlessly selective.

The quietly wealthy aren't waiting for the domestic cycle to reset. They're preparing for it. But they aren't sitting idle. They're moving capital into positions the current market can't touch: genuine value, mobile lifestyles, and assets that don't fight back every month.

For Those Who Rode the Upswing

Some of you made real money in this cycle. Good. You earned it.

Now the smarter move is protecting it. Not chasing the next peak-basis buy. Not squeezing another 4% out of a property consuming your weekends.

The shift I'm watching is toward capital preservation, lower carry costs, and a life that actually reflects what the portfolio was supposed to build.

That's where geo arbitrage enters the conversation. Not as a gimmick. As a legitimate capital strategy.

Here's the number that lands hardest: in several markets I track, your total annual carry costs less than the property tax line alone on a comparable US asset. For investors carrying the tax load in California, Colorado, New York, Texas, or Florida, that comparison is jarring.

A well-located flat in Panama City or Lisbon. Lower carry. Personal use. Meaningful appreciation. A different risk profile than everything else you own. And a life that comes with it.

That's not a lifestyle pitch. That's a balance sheet argument.

The Blue-Chip Framework

When I was structuring a small SFR fund years ago, I started using the term blue-chip for a specific kind of residential asset.

Not trophy. Not speculative. Lower risk, durable income, modest appreciation. The large-cap logic applied to real estate. Assets you hold through a cycle without losing sleep.

The domestic plays that still qualify are harder to find. But the framework travels internationally, and the entry points in several markets remain rational.

And the numbers will surprise you.

We are finding genuine blue-chip pied-à-terre opportunities across every price point. Entry-level new construction in world-class markets from $100K to $250K — not compromised locations, not distressed assets — cities where infrastructure, lifestyle, and rental demand are all pointing the same direction. Move up the range into $250K to $500K and you are looking at prime addresses, better finishes, stronger appreciation profiles, and assets that hold their value through a down cycle.

Here's the math that stops people: in several of these markets your total annual holding costs — taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance — run less than what you pay in property taxes alone on a comparable US asset. For investors carrying the tax load in California, Colorado, New York, Texas, or Florida, that's not a rounding error. That's the entire argument for owning internationally versus grinding another year on a domestic asset that's fighting you.

There is something here for every serious investor. The question is knowing where to look.

What the Markets Show

NAR data now shows 16% of US realtors report clients actively seeking property abroad, up from 9% the prior year. These aren't speculators. They're experienced investors running the same forensic math we run every week and arriving at the same conclusion: the value has moved.

Here is where the sentiment is pointing right now.

🇲🇽 Mexico

Still the most searched international market for US buyers, and for good reason. Proximity, affordability, and straightforward foreign ownership rules remain compelling. The story is nuanced though. Cabo, Tulum, and Playa del Carmen have softened as oversupply and short-term rental restrictions bite. The investors winning here are those who understand which submarkets overcorrected and which are genuinely broken. We are digging into this in detail.

🇵🇦 Panama City 

We've already shared our first impressions. The more we dig, the stronger the conviction. Dollar-denominated, sub-1% property taxes, and carry costs that reframe the entire international investment conversation for US investors. International buyer demand is up an estimated 25% since 2023 and the Pensionado and Qualified Investor visa programs are drawing a more sophisticated buyer profile than most markets at this stage. What's becoming clearer on the ground is that Panama City isn't one market. It's several, and the spread between the right neighborhoods and the wrong ones is significant. Rental yields in best-in-class positions are running well above the 6 to 7% market average. The pied-à-terre thesis here is as strong as anywhere we've looked. We've been tracking this market since October. The deal flow is real, the contacts are vetted, and our intelligence runs deep.

🇵🇹 Portugal

The top European destination for US buyers according to NAR. Lisbon, Porto, and the Algarve continue to draw serious capital. Rental yields in key cities running 5 to 6.6% with foreign buyers representing the majority of transactions in prime areas. Golden Visa program changes have created short-term noise but long-term demand fundamentals remain intact.

🇨🇷 Costa Rica

Consistently near the top of every serious international buyer list for Americans. Stable economy, strong property protections, established expat infrastructure, and genuine lifestyle appeal beyond the tourism pitch. Ecotourism rental demand provides a durable income floor that most coastal markets can't match.

🇪🇸 Costa del Sol, Spain 

The Schengen Shield. Price growth of 5 to 9% expected in 2026 with Marbella demand consistently outpacing supply. We are pushing beyond the established corridors, scouting the fringes and emerging neighborhoods on the path of progress where the value still lives. Northern European buyer base is structural, not cyclical. For residency-minded investors, the EU footprint matters as much as the yield.

We Never Left the US

Everything above is an expansion, not an exit.

We scout domestic deal flow every single week, sharing intel and forensic data that matter. The US still has value. It's just harder to find and demands a higher standard of diligence than it did three years ago. That's what we do. We find it, stress-test it, and share it.

What's changing is the aperture. Serious investors are asking questions their domestic brokers can't answer, and we're building the coverage to meet that demand.

What We're Scouting

The questions serious investors are asking right now aren't small ones.

Where does capital go when the dollar keeps softening? What does a sensible international position actually look like for someone who isn't ready to leave the US, just wants a foothold? What really happened to Cabo, Tulum, and Playa del Carmen, and what does the answer tell us about where the next wave is already forming? Is there a South American market that cashflows, appreciates, and holds its ground if things get complicated at home?

There is. And most people haven't found it yet.

We don't have a geography bias. We have a value bias.

Panama City just moved to the top of our Western Hemisphere list for reasons that go beyond the obvious. Europe still has rational entry points, but fewer than it did eighteen months ago, and the ones worth owning aren't the ones getting the press. Mexico's coast is a more complicated story than the headlines suggest, in both directions.

We're on the ground. More coming.

How We Work

I retired early from real estate investing. I didn't have to come back.

But scouting markets, finding value others miss, and sharing what I uncover never stopped being the best part. Since the late 90s I've been investing and underwriting real estate across the US and internationally — residential, multifamily, STR, MTR, LTR, rehabs, flips, over 100 doors — through every cycle this market has produced. I hold select pied-à-terre properties in places we actually enjoy, and I'm still actively scouting the next one. I've operated as an Airbnb Superhost since 2013. Not as an observer. As an operator who is also my own best client.

STR Scout exists because I love this work. Not because I need it to.

That distinction matters more than it might sound.

I've been a licensed broker since the early 90s and spent half my career in mortgage banking. Commissions and referral fees were the air we breathed. It's how the industry works, how relationships get built, and how most "recommendations" actually get made. I know that world intimately because I lived it.

And I know exactly what it costs you.

When someone is paid by the source, bias isn't a risk, it's the business model. The project that pays more floats to the top. The market that kicks back a referral fee gets the coverage. The investor pays the price without ever knowing the deck was stacked.

Not here. Not anymore.

I've trained thousands in sales and marketing over my career. I'm not selling anymore. I'm researching and sharing.

We don't take developer or agent referral commissions. Ever. Every market we cover, every property we flag, every resource we share earned its place on merit alone. No kickbacks. No steering. No one collecting a check on your decision but you.

That's not a policy we adopted. It's a line we drew.

You get the introduction. You get the ideas. You get access to markets and opportunities most investors never find because nobody with clean hands was looking. No markup. No agenda.

The highest level of intel, insight, and vetted resources we can produce, at a subscription that shouldn't make you think twice. One good idea from one good issue pays for itself many times over.

STR Scout+ is coming.

Exploration, intel, ideas, and resources. Fueled by passion and curiosity, not commission.

This is our journey. We'd love to have you along.