🌴 The Vail Resorts Market Repricing Event—What $92K Revenue Assets Look Like Now

STR Scout Members —

I’m writing this from Beaver Creek, where only 53% of the terrain is open, and the available runs resemble late-season conditions, with a mix of dirt, ice, and heavy crowds.

Last week, Vail Resorts reported skier visits down 20% through early January—CEO Rob Katz called it "one of the worst early-season snowfalls in the western U.S. in over 30 years."

The damage is measurable:

• Rockies snowfall 60% below the 30-year average

• Only 11% of Colorado terrain open in December

• Ski school bookings down 14.9%

• Dining revenue down 15.9%

• Even Alterra is paying passholders $20/day to show up

By early January, snow cover across the West hit the lowest level since NASA began satellite tracking in 2001. Over 80% of monitoring stations in the West reported severe drought conditions.

This isn't weather. It's a pattern.

And it's showing up in transaction data across Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and Keystone right now.

Sellers anchored to 2023 pricing are watching days-on-market stretch past 100 while buyers demand yield proof before committing capital to climate-volatile mountain markets.

What I'm seeing on the ground this week: limited terrain, sparse coverage, and a fundamental disconnect between asking prices and the new reality.

This is what the repricing looks like.

Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide

The Buy-Side Reality

Interest rates continue to dictate a "wait-and-see" approach for casual buyers, but institutional and seasoned individual investors are pivotally focused on yield-compression resistance.

Demand remains concentrated in walkable Village cores where supply is structurally capped.

With median days-on-market now stretching to 58-106 days depending on location, buyers have leverage to demand inspection concessions and price adjustments that were non-existent two years ago.

Supply vs. Saturation

While inventory has ticked up, the market is bifurcated.

General residential inventory is growing, yet STR-eligible Fee Simple assets are becoming increasingly rare due to tightening local density caps.

We are seeing a "flight to quality" where premium locations—Vail Village, Lionshead, Beaver Creek Village—maintain pricing power despite broader volume slowdowns.

True saturation is appearing in the luxury condo segment where rising HOA dues and insurance premiums (up 20-40% recently) are forcing a re-evaluation of carrying costs.

The Valuation Math

To clear current debt service hurdles at 6.1-6.5% interest rates, investors are shifting from appreciation-dependent models to cash-on-cash sensitivity.

Properties failing to hit a $125K+ gross revenue floor are seeing significant price corrections as they no longer pencil out.

With median sale-to-list ratios at 94.2-96.4%, the math only works for STR investors who can secure at least a 5-7% discount off asking price to offset the "sticky" insurance and management overhead—often 30-40% of gross revenue in this market.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory

Note: Inventory metrics reflect STR-eligible Fee Simple properties only, excluding fractionals, timeshares, and deed-restricted housing.

Market Pulse: STR Performance

STR performance metrics: Trailing 30-day averages, February 2026.

Asset Analysis: What Works in 2026

The Big Picture

The market is currently shedding "COVID-era" premium pricing.

We are seeing a return to a rationalized luxury market where properties must justify their price tag through proven rental history or unique architectural moats.

The gap between median STR revenue ($92,400) and top-tier performance ($214,000+) reveals what separates winning assets from mediocre ones.

Yield Hook

High-performing assets are those located within a 5-minute walk to Gondola One or Eagle Bahn.

The "Distance to Lift" remains the strongest signal for recession-proof ADR (Average Daily Rate) stability.

In 2026, properties must offer summer revenue diversification—bike storage, AC, trail access—as insurance against shortened or disrupted winter seasons.

Operational Moats

Properties with pre-existing, transferable STR permits or those located in specific "Commercial-Core" zones represent the safest plays.

They are insulated from potential future municipal short-term rental bans.

In Summit County, properties in "Resort Zones" carry a massive premium because they bypass the restrictive caps found in "Neighborhood Zones."

Red Flags

Watch for aging HOAs with looming assessments for roof, boiler, or elevator replacements often "baked in" to the sale price but devastating to 12-month cash-on-cash returns.

Rising insurance premiums (20-40% increases) are forcing special assessments across 1970s-era condo buildings.

Consultative Negotiation: The Pressure Test

The Permit Trap

"Has the property been audited for STR compliance in the last 12 months, and are there any pending HOA discussions regarding further rental restrictions or 'right of first refusal' clauses?"

The Assessment Shadow

"Can you provide the 5-year capital improvement plan for the building/HOA? Are there any un-levied special assessments planned for roof, elevator, or deck replacements?"

The Motivation Signal

"Given the current days-on-market, what is the seller's specific timeline for a 1031 exchange, and would they prefer a faster close over a higher top-line price?"

Revenue Verification

"Can we see the 'Clean' P&L (excluding owner stays) and the specific management fee structure currently in place? Is the current management contract terminable upon sale?"

The Insurance Audit

"With Colorado's mountain insurance premiums spiking 20-40% recently, can you provide the last 24 months of actual premium history and any 'non-renewal' notices received?"

Why These Work

Each question forces documentation. Either the pricing is reality-based, or the seller's still operating on 2023 assumptions.

In a market where days-on-market now exceed two months, documentation wins negotiations.

The Reconnaissance Question

At what point does climate volatility fundamentally reprice mountain real estate assets?

What I'm seeing this week in Beaver Creek: the repricing started.

Brown patches visible from the village. Lots of sun, with late springlike weather. Property managers fielding panicked calls from owners asking why occupancy is down 22% year-over-year.

The question isn't whether climate risk will reprice these markets.

The question is how fast it accelerates—and which assets prove recession-proof when the next deficit season hits.

I'm in Beaver Creek through Friday.

Limited terrain, and spring weather. Extended days-on-market. Sellers dropping prices and still not moving.

The data told the story before I arrived.

Being here just confirms it.

Happy scouting,

Andy
Founder, STR Scout

Investor Focus Disclaimer: This report strictly filters out "Market Noise" (fractionals, timeshares, and deed-restricted housing) to provide data on Fee Simple, investment-grade real estate only.

Sourcing & Methodology: Data synthesized from Vail/Summit County MLS (VMLS), Realtor.com Research, and AirROI MarketMinder. All metrics reflect trailing 30-day averages as of February 2026. Vail Resorts operational data from company investor update January 15, 2026. Climate impact analysis from National Integrated Drought Information System (January 8, 2026). Field reconnaissance conducted February 1-9, 2026 in Beaver Creek/Vail/Eagle County, Colorado.