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  • 🔥 Why Smart Money Is Finally Getting Destin Properties at a 5.3% Discount (And What Changed)

🔥 Why Smart Money Is Finally Getting Destin Properties at a 5.3% Discount (And What Changed)

5 forensic breakdowns of seller fatigue: from '7 price adjustments in 120 days' to 'VERY MOTIVATED' after 262 days on market—here's what each signal actually means for your offer.

STR Scout Members —

The Big Picture: As we move across the "Emerald Coast" from Panama City Beach to Destin, the market signals are shifting from high-volume saturation to a high-conviction "Saturation Divide." While the 32413 and 32541 zip codes share the same shoreline, the underwriting logic is night and day.

The Problem: Destin is no longer a "lifestyle buy" market. Inventory for non-Gulf-front resort units has ballooned, pushing the median Days on Market (DOM) to 130 days. We are seeing a 12% increase in inventory duration year-over-year, and for the first time in years, 83% of recent sales have closed under list price. The "2021-era" pricing strategies are hitting a wall of 2026 interest rates and insurance spikes.

Our Role: With a median sale-to-list ratio of 94.7%, your leverage is at an all-time high. My role is to separate the "lifestyle legacy" assets from the high-yield strategic plays. I am hunting for the Forensic Break—those properties where the "tax cliff" and the new Florida SB 154 reserve mandates are scaring off the average buyer, creating an entry point for those of us who know how to model the carry.

The Focus: In Destin, the audit focuses on Scale vs. Unit Count. We are looking past the 2-bedroom "listing noise" to find assets with "Non-Conforming" advantages: private deeded beach access, lack of restrictive HOAs, or "Guest Capacity" plays that actually pass a fire marshal audit. We are finding the alpha in the 10-12% Gross Yield floor that sellers are finally starting to accept.

In this issue: A deep-dive forensic audit of Destin, FL.

  • Motivation Check: Identifying aging listings with 10%+ total price reductions and "Back on Market" fatigue.

  • The Legislative Audit: Verifying which associations have actually completed their mandatory 2025 SIRS (Structural Integrity Reserve Study) and which are hiding special assessments.

  • The Yield Hook: Why large-format vacation rentals (6+ bedrooms) are the only segment currently outperforming the high cost of capital.

Happy scouting,

Andy T. Founder, STR Scout

Market Narrative: The Saturation Divide

  • The Buy-Side Reality: Destin remains a high-conviction market for legacy wealth, but the entry barrier has shifted. With interest rates hovering in the mid-high range, the "lifestyle buyer" is being replaced by the yield-focused strategist. Properties must now offer high-density bedding or unique beach access to justify current debt service.

  • Supply vs. Saturation: While inventory has seen a modest uptick, the Short-Term Rental (STR) supply is nearing a peak. Success is no longer guaranteed by location alone; "amenity creep" is real, and properties without professional design or heated pools are losing pricing power to updated competitors.

  • The Valuation Math: To clear current cost of capital, investors are targeting a 10-12% Gross Yield floor. Sellers are beginning to realize that 2021-era pricing doesn't pencil for 2026 buyers, leading to a slow but necessary recalibration of list prices for non-prime assets.

Market Pulse: Real Estate Inventory

Metric

Current Value

Active Homes

942

Median List Price

$845,000

Sale-to-List Ratio

96.4%

Median Days on Market

68 Days

Market Pulse: STR Performance

Metric

Current Value

Active STR Competition

7,150 Units

Median Occupancy

62%

Median STR Revenue

$74,200

Top 10% STR Revenue

$168,500+

Asset Analysis: Destin Coastal Core

  • The Big Picture: The market is currently rewarding scale over unit count. Large-format vacation rentals (6+ bedrooms) are significantly outperforming the saturated 2-bedroom condo segment, which is facing stiff competition from new hotel inventory.

  • The Yield Hook: Look for properties with "Non-Conforming" advantages, such as private deeded beach access or lack of restrictive HOA fees. These assets command a 15-20% premium in occupancy during the shoulder seasons.

  • Operational Moats: Professional management is the divide. Owners utilizing dynamic pricing algorithms and high-touch guest experiences are capturing the "Top 10%" revenue bracket, while "set it and forget it" owners are seeing double-digit revenue decay.

Consultative Negotiation: Pressure Test

  • Management History: "Can you provide a 36-month trailing P&L that breaks out 'Owner Stays' versus 'Paid Nights' to verify the true revenue ceiling?"

  • Capital Expenditure: "With the current salt-air depreciation, what is the age of the HVAC units and the roof, and has the HOA (if applicable) fully funded its most recent reserve study?"

  • The 'Why' Factor: "Given the current average Days on Market of 68, what is the seller’s specific timeline for exit, and are they open to rate buydowns or seller credits to offset the financing delta?"

Sources: Market intelligence aggregated via Realtor/MLS, AirROI, and local property management data.

2 BR | 2 BA | 836 SqFt | $401 | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Destin / 32541

January 2026. The Destin market is currently characterized as a Buyer’s Market with a median Days on Market (DOM) of 130 days, reflecting a 12% increase in inventory duration year-over-year. The median sale-to-list ratio has compressed to 94.7%, indicating high negotiability for aging listings.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA/Condo Fees

$800

$9,600

[Source: MLS #985091]

Current Taxes (2025)

$287

$3,439

[Source: Okaloosa Tax Collector]

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$382

$4,583

2026 Reassessment Est.*

Est. Fixed Carry

$1,469

$17,622

Projected Monthly Burn

*Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate applies the Destin millage rate to the current $335,000 ask, removing the previous owner’s "Save Our Homes" cap.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: The listing leans on "value hunter" psychology, highlighting a $17,000 price cut on Jan 1, 2026, to trigger "New Year" buyer interest. It positions the asset as a "blank canvas" to justify the current "original" interior condition.

  • Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 138 days. The price was reduced from $352,000 to $335,000 (4.8%) after 112 days of market exposure.

  • Appreciation History: Purchased in Nov 2015 for $135,000 ($161/PPSF). The current ask represents a 148% nominal appreciation over 10 years, or approx. 9.5% annualized, significantly outpacing the building's infrastructure lifecycle.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: HVAC and Water Heater are 7 years old (2019). The Roof is a metal system on a 1994 structure; while metal has a longer lifespan, the salt-air environment of Destin typically triggers insurance carrier scrutiny at the 25-year mark regardless of material.

  • Legislative Audit: This is a 3-story structure. Per Florida SB 154, the Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) deadline was Dec 31, 2025. Any budget adopted for 2026 must now include mandatory non-waivable reserves for structural components.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: 94.7% (ZIP 32541 Average).

  • Verified Sold Comps: * 1006 E Hwy 98 #313: Sold $395,000 (2/2, 738 SqFt, $535/PPSF).

    • 4203 Indian Bayou #1212: Sold $255,500 (2/2, 970 SqFt, $263/PPSF).

  • Direct Competition: 4207 Indian Bayou #2610 is currently active at $298,000 for a 2/2 with higher square footage (970 SqFt).

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  • "Has the association distributed the SIRS report (required by Dec 31, 2025) and what is the current 'percent funded' for structural reserves?"

  • "Are there any Special Assessments planned for 2026 to meet the new mandatory funding requirements for the metal roof or balconies?"

  • "Does the HOA allow for third-party STR management or are there 'preferred vendor' restrictions that impact the $63k revenue projection?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The property sits at $401/PPSF, which is a 12% premium over recent neighborhood floors ($350-$365 range for unrenovated units). The primary forensic risk is the post-sale tax reset, which will increase the carry by approximately $1,144 annually. Investors must account for the 2026 mandatory SIRS reserve funding, which may result in upward pressure on the current $800/mo HOA fee.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

1 BR | 1 BA | 750 SqFt | $567 | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Holiday Isle / 32541

January 2026. Holiday Isle is currently a Buyer’s Market with high inventory levels and limited absorption. Median Days on Market (DOM) have extended to 164 days, a sharp increase from the 2024 sub-market average. Average sale-to-list price ratios are trending at 94.0%, indicating significant downward price pressure and high seller motiviation.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA/Condo Fees

$680

$8,160

[Source: MLS #976283]

Current Taxes (2025)

$337

$4,044

[Source: 2025 Tax Bill]

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$493

$5,920

2026 Reassessment Est.*

Est. Fixed Carry

$1,510

$18,124

Projected Monthly Burn

*Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate models the Destin FY2026 millage rate (City: 1.615 | County: 3.8308 | School: ~6.0 | MSTU: 0.299) applied to the current $425,000 ask, removing the seller’s capped "Save Our Homes" value.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: Listing anchors on high-urgency language ("VERY MOTIVATED SELLER," "Bring All Offers") and highlights a $34,000 (7.4%) price drop effective Jan 31, 2026, to stimulate interest after long-term market stagnation.

  • Price Adjustments: Total listing age is 262 days. The unit has been through multiple price cycles, starting at $499,000 in March 2024. Current pricing represents a 14.8% total reduction from the original ask.

  • Appreciation History: Last sold in Dec 2018 for $255,000 ($340/PPSF). The current ask reflects a 66.7% nominal increase over 7 years, though market resistance is evident at the current $567/PPSF.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: Built in 1975. Building-wide windows and doors have been upgraded to impact glass, which improves wind mitigation ratings for the association's master policy.

  • Legislative Audit: Per Florida SB 154, this 7-story structure was required to complete a Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) by Dec 31, 2025.

    • Audit Result: Holiday Surf & Racquet recently completed its 25-year Milestone Inspection (Phase 1) with reported "no issues."

    • Reserve Status: Association claims to maintain fully funded reserves, a critical compliance check as of Jan 1, 2026, when reserve waiving became prohibited by law.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: 94.0% (Holiday Isle Average).

  • Verified Sold Comps: * 510 Gulf Shore Dr #607: Active at $559,000 ($524/PPSF) (2BR unit).

    • 510 Gulf Shore Dr #211: Active at $545,000 ($511/PPSF) (2BR unit).

  • Direct Competition: Multiple 2-bedroom units in the same building are currently listed at a lower PPSF ($511–$524) than this 1-bedroom unit ($567), suggesting the 1BR carries a "ground floor convenience" premium.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  • "Can the association provide a copy of the Phase 1 Milestone Inspection report and the completed SIRS to verify structural reserve adequacy for 2026?"

  • "Is the $680 HOA fee the new 2026 rate inclusive of mandatory structural reserve funding?"

  • "What is the specific gross rental income (1099 verified) for 2024 and 2025 for this specific unit, given its ground-floor positioning?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The asset is priced at $567/PPSF, which is a premium compared to larger 2BR units in the building currently trading near $515/PPSF. The post-sale tax reset poses a significant carry risk, with a projected 46% increase in tax liability. However, the building's successful completion of the Phase 1 Milestone Inspection and reported fully-funded reserve status mitigates the forensic risk of immediate large-scale special assessments common in 1970s coastal inventory.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

1 BR | 1 BA | 760 SqFt | $645 | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Destin / 32541

January 2026. The Destin Gulf-front segment is currently in a Buyer’s Market phase, with inventory supply expanding and median Days on Market (DOM) for the 32541 ZIP rising to 120 days. High interest rates and 2026 insurance/reserve shifts have led to a median sale-to-list ratio of 95% for older Gulf-front inventory.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA/Condo Fees

$1,638

$19,656

[Source: MLS #980845]

Current Taxes (2025)

$549

$6,592

[Source: 2024 Tax Bill]

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$557

$6,688

2026 Reassessment Est.*

Est. Fixed Carry

$2,744

$32,936

Projected Monthly Burn

*Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate applies the aggregate Destin millage rate (approx. 13.65 mills including County/School/City) to the current $490,000 ask. The current tax bill is already near market value due to a 2025 sale event.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: Listing uses high-velocity psychological triggers ("BACK ON MARKET," "No fault of sellers," "Tour today, waves won't wait") to distract from a cumulative $65,000 (11.7%) reduction from its initial 2025 high of $555,000.

  • Price Adjustments: Listed for 201 days. Relisted on Jan 26, 2026, after a failed contract. It has undergone seven price adjustments in the last 120 days, signaling high seller fatigue and urgent exit intent.

  • Appreciation History: Sold in March 2025 for $490,000. The current ask of $490,000 represents 0% equity growth in 10 months, effectively a "break-even" listing before seller closing costs.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: 36-year-old structure (Built 1989). HVAC condenser was replaced in 2023, mitigating immediate $8k–$12k replacement risk. Stucco exterior on piling foundations requires high-frequency maintenance in this high-salinity environment.

  • Legislative Audit: Per Florida SB 154, the Destin Seafarer building was required to complete a Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) by Dec 31, 2025. Mandatory funding for structural reserves must be non-waivable in the budget starting Jan 1, 2026, which may explain the high $1,638/mo HOA fee relative to unit size.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: 95% (ZIP 32541 Average).

  • Verified Sold Comps: * 1700 Scenic Hwy 98 #101: Sold Mar 2025 for $490,000 ($645/PPSF).

    • 1700 Scenic Hwy 98 #204: Sold 2025 for $726,000 ($605/PPSF) (2BR unit).

  • Direct Competition: * 1700 Scenic Hwy 98 #106: Active at $475,000 ($625/PPSF).

    • 1700 Scenic Hwy 98 #109: Active at $559,000 ($735/PPSF).

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  • "What was the specific inspection finding that caused the previous contract to fall through ('Back on Market')?"

  • "Has the association finalized the SIRS report as of Jan 1, 2026, and is the current $1,638 monthly fee the 'fully funded' rate or a temporary assessment?"

  • "Is there a documented history of the $48,000 gross rental (1099 or management report) available for 2024/2025?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The unit is listed at $645/PPSF, exactly matching its March 2025 purchase price. The fixed carry ($2,744/mo) is exceptionally high for a 1-bedroom, consuming approximately 68% of projected gross revenue (based on the $48k rental claim) before accounting for management fees, cleaning, or utilities. This leaves thin margins for debt service, reflecting the forensic risk of recent Florida legislative reserve mandates.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

1 BR | 1.5 BA | 1,100 SqFt | $468 | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Crystal Beach / 32541

January 2026. Crystal Beach is currently a Buyer’s Market with high inventory levels and low competition. Median Days on Market (DOM) have expanded to 184 days. The average sale price in this sub-pocket typically settles at 6% below list price, reflecting significant negotiating leverage for active buyers.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA/Condo Fees

$1,107

$13,284

[Source: MLS #969331]

Current Taxes (2025)

$474

$5,688

[Source: 2025 Est. Payment]

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$586

$7,030

2026 Reassessment Est.*

Est. Fixed Carry

$1,693

$20,314

Projected Monthly Burn

*Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate applies the Okaloosa County millage rate to the current $515,000 ask, removing the previous owner’s "Save Our Homes" cap.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: Listing utilizes high-visibility anchors ("JUST REDUCED," "TURNKEY") to combat aging listing fatigue. It emphasizes "high dollar summer rental income" to shift focus from carry costs to gross revenue.

  • Price Adjustments: This property has been active for 341 days. It was originally listed in Feb 2025 at $600,000. It has undergone a cumulative reduction of $85,000 (14.2%).

  • Appreciation History: Last sold in Jan 2018 for $360,000 ($327/PPSF). The current ask represents a 43% nominal increase over 8 years (~4.6% annualized), which is more conservative than high-rise Gulf-front peers but reflects the aging profile of the building.

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: 43-year-old structure (Built 1983). The seller notes "building and site improvements" were made in 2022-2023. At this age, the 40-year milestone inspection (per Florida SB 4-D) should have been completed.

  • Legislative Audit: Per Florida SB 154, as a 4-story structure, Cabana Club was required to complete its Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) by Dec 31, 2025. Mandatory funding for structural reserves must be non-waivable in the budget as of Jan 1, 2026.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: 94.0% (Crystal Beach Average).

  • Verified Sold Comps: * 100 Matthew Blvd #209: Active at $599,999 ($800/PPSF) (Superior condition/amenities).

    • 3655 Scenic Hwy 98 #501A: Active at $425,000 ($323/PPSF) (2BR unit, significantly lower PPSF).

  • Direct Competition: 1700 Scenic Hwy 98 #109 is active at $475,000 ($625/PPSF) for a similar Gulf-front 1BR profile but with less square footage.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  • "Is the current $1,107 HOA fee inclusive of the 2026 SIRS mandatory reserve funding, or is there a supplemental assessment scheduled?"

  • "The listing mentions the use of the Sea Oats pool; is this a perpetual deeded easement or a temporary management agreement that could be revoked?"

  • "Can the seller provide the 2023-2024 rental ledger to verify the 'seasoned rental program' performance claims?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The unit offers a competitive $468/PPSF for Gulf-front space, benefiting from an unusually large footprint for a 1BR (1,100 SqFt). The primary forensic risk is the 341-day listing age, which suggests the market has rejected the previous price points. Investors should verify if the "Sea Oats" pool access is legally bound to the unit, as this property does not have an on-site pool, which is a critical amenity for STR competitiveness.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

2 BR | 2 BA | 970 SqFt | $360 | Condo

Forensic Market Data: Destin / 32541

January 2026. The Destin condo market remains in a Buyer’s Market phase. Inventory for non-Gulf-front resort units (The Palms, Sandestin, etc.) has increased, with median Days on Market (DOM) rising to 135 days. The average sale price is currently tracking at 5% below list price, providing a baseline for high-negotiability on aging listings.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA/Condo Fees

$1,235

$14,821

[Source: MLS #974608]

Current Taxes (2025)

$275

$3,295

[Source: 2025 Tax Bill]

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$395

$4,737

2026 Reassessment Est.*

Est. Fixed Carry

$1,630

$19,558

Projected Monthly Burn

*Note: Under Florida Law (Statute 193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate models the 2026 Destin millage rate (~1.615 city + ~3.961 county aggregate) applied to the $349,000 ask, removing the previous owner's capped assessment.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: Listing leans heavily on "Income Performance" psychology, citing a 3-year gross average of $61k. It positions the unit as a "Superhost" asset to justify a premium over unmanaged units.

  • Price Adjustments: This property has been active for 282 days. Initially listed in April 2025 at $399,900, it has undergone a $50,900 (12.7%) reduction. The price has remained stagnant at $349,000 since July 2025.

  • Appreciation History: Purchased in Nov 2019 for $230,000 ($237/PPSF). The current ask represents a 51.7% nominal appreciation over 6 years (~8.6% annualized).

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: 19-year-old structure (Built 2007). Major systems (HVAC/Water Heater) are likely entering their second lifecycle; buyer should verify replacement dates for this specific unit.

  • Legislative Audit: The Palms of Destin consists of high-rise towers (12 stories). Per Florida SB 154, the association was required to complete a Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) by Dec 31, 2025. As of Jan 1, 2026, the association is legally barred from waiving or underfunding reserves for structural components (roof, plumbing, electrical, etc.).

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: 95.0% (ZIP 32541 Average).

  • Verified Sold Comps: * 4203 Indian Bayou #1309: Active at $350,000 ($360/PPSF).

    • 4207 Indian Bayou #2610: Active at $298,000 ($307/PPSF) (Superior price point).

  • Direct Competition: 4207 Indian Bayou #21205 is currently active at $480,000 ($494/PPSF), suggesting a wide variance in "Penthouse" vs. standard floor premiums in this complex.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  • "Has the association distributed the final 2025 SIRS Report, and what is the current 'percent funded' for the mandatory structural reserves?"

  • "Is the $53k (2024) revenue figure inclusive of cleaning fees and taxes, or is it net-to-owner gross?"

  • "Are there any current or pending Special Assessments related to the 'new state of the art fitness center' or pickleball courts mentioned in the listing?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The unit is priced at $360/PPSF, aligning with the current building median. However, the 282-day market age indicates the $349,000 anchor has not yet cleared the market in a buyer-favored cycle. The all-inclusive HOA fee ($1,235/mo) simplifies the burn rate but makes the asset highly sensitive to association-wide insurance or reserve increases. Investors should audit the 2024 revenue decline (from $70k to $53k) to determine if it is market-wide or unit-specific.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.

$1,099,000 — 256 Kono Way, Destin, FL 32541

6 BR | 3.5 BA | 2,600 SqFt | $423/SqFt | Detached Single Family

Forensic Market Data: Destin / 32541

January 2026. The Destin market is currently characterized as a buyer’s market with inventory levels stabilizing following a 2025 correction. Median Days on Market (DOM) for the 32541 ZIP code sits at 115–124 days, with approximately 83% of homes selling below list price.

Operational Carry: Documented Fixed Expenses

Isolate property-level liabilities. Exclude mortgage debt service.

Expense Category

Monthly Cost

Annual Total

Data Source

HOA Fees

$555

$6,660

MLS / Listing

Current Taxes (2024)

$774

$9,291

2024 Tax Bill

Est. Post-Sale Taxes

$1,123

$13,478

2026 Reassessment Est.

Est. Fixed Carry

$1,678

$20,138

Projected Monthly Burn

Note: Under Florida Law (193.155), property assessments reset to market value on Jan 1st following a sale. This estimate models a millage rate of ~12.264 (Destin/Okaloosa total) against the $1.099M purchase price, assuming the removal of the previous owner's "Save Our Homes" cap.

Price Exposure & Valuation History

  • Motivational Scan: Listing leans on proximity to the "Disney Style" pool and high-occupancy 6-bedroom configuration. Mentions 2017-era revenue projections ($60k+) which may not reflect 2026 operational costs or current saturation.

  • Price Adjustments: Listed July 2025 at $1.05M; increased to $1.15M; adjusted to current $1.099M in Aug 2025. Total listing age: 211+ days.

  • Appreciation History: Last sold in March 2018 for $500,000. Current ask represents a 119.8% nominal appreciation over 8 years (~15% annualized).

Structural & Actuarial Data Points ("The Break")

  • Actuarial Risk: Built in 2006. The roof and HVAC units are approaching the 20-year actuarial cliff. Most Florida carriers require roof replacement or certification at 15–20 years to maintain replacement cost coverage.

  • Legislative Audit: SFH Status. Not subject to SIRS/SB 154 condo mandates; however, 2006 construction predates 2023-24 wind mitigation code updates. Flood Zone X (Low Risk) per current FEMA mapping.

Sales Analysis: Verified Market Benchmarks

  • Sale-to-List Ratio: Current 32541 median is 94.9%.

  • Verified Sold Comps:  229 E Grand Key Loop (6BR/3.5BA): Sold *Sept 2025 for $1,000,000** ($385/SqFt).

    • 257 Kono Way (4BR/4BA): Sold July 2025 for $905,000 ($443/SqFt).

  • Direct Competition:

    • 222 Kono Way (6BR/4BA): Active at $1,100,000 ($423/SqFt) - 166 days on market.

    • 228 Grand Key Loop W (6BR/4BA): Active at $1,085,000 ($422/SqFt) - 251 days on market.

Critical Due-Diligence Discovery Questions

  1. "Can the seller provide a 2025 Wind Mitigation Report and 4-Point Inspection to confirm the remaining useful life of the 2006 roof?"

  2. "Are there any pending HOA Special Assessments for the 'Lagoon Pool' or common area infrastructure scheduled for 2026?"

  3. "Is the $60k+ revenue claim backed by 2024-2025 1099s, or is it based on 'pro forma' projections from 2017?"

Underwriting Logic Summary

The property is priced at $423/SqFt, which aligns with the current neighborhood ceiling but sits above the $385/SqFt benchmark established by the Sept 2025 sale of 229 E Grand Key Loop. Forensic risk is concentrated in the 45% projected property tax increase upon reassessment and the imminent 20-year structural lifecycle expiration of the original 2006 roof and mechanicals.

Full Disclosure: This report is a data aggregation sourced from raw listing/MLS data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All data points, especially post-sale tax estimates and insurance eligibility, must be independently verified by licensed professionals.