Here's what we're watching heading into summer. Five headwinds.
Domestic travelers are tapped out. The Canadian pipeline is broken. Airfare is a tax before anyone opens your listing.
Here's what's working against you.
The numbers
Summer domestic airfare is up 19% year over year. Budget fares up nearly 23%. (Going / Fox 26 Houston)
17% of Americans plan to go into debt for a vacation this year. Average tab: $2,525 per traveler. (IPX 1031)
Annual leisure budgets hit a record $6,453. That's not wealth. That's inflation. The same trip costs more. (State of the American Traveler)
61% of Americans want to travel but say they can't afford it. 16% have already canceled or postponed 2026 plans. (IPX 1031)
International arrivals dropped 6.3% late last year. The 2026 recovery projection: 3.7%. (U.S. Travel Association)
The domestic guest is carrying last year's trip
More than a third of people who charged their 2025 vacation to a credit card still haven't paid it off. Now 84% plan to put this summer on a card again, at an average rate of 22.3%.
Spring break was the tell. Only 19% of Americans planned a trip this year, down from 35% in 2025. These aren't people trimming a budget. They're choosing between the trip and something else. Travel is losing that fight.
The Canadian guest made a decision, not a budget
Canada was our largest source of foreign visitors. That pipeline is broken, and no discount fixes it.
Arrivals dropped 21% last year. Vehicle crossings have declined ten straight months. Las Vegas offered city-wide deals and let Canadians pay in their own currency at parity. Didn't move them. These travelers are going to Europe and the Caribbean instead.
When it's a values decision, price is irrelevant.
Now might be the time to access your equity
Markets like this shake things loose. Motivated sellers surface. Overleveraged operators look for exits. Deals show up that weren't available 18 months ago.
If you've built equity in your portfolio, this is a reasonable time to look at what you can do with it. Consolidate high-rate debt. Fund a property update that sharpens your competitive position. Or get dry powder ready so you can move when the right deal surfaces.
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